How did our suggestions turn out?
SolidMissed
Not both teams score in the first halfFirst half, both teams to score: no82%we said so
Score 2–3
Most likelyMissed
Montenegro score at most 1 goalMontenegro goals under 1.562%we said so
Montenegro: 3 goals
SurpriseMissed
DrawMatch result: draw30%we said so
Score 2-3
2 of 6 suggestions hit
Other strong options:3 goals or fewer in the match75%No draw70%Armenia score70%
Who wins? · pre-match
32%Armenia30%Draw38%Montenegro
Result: Montenegro wonHow many goals?expected 2.5 · actual 5
012345+
2 goals or fewer 55% · 3 or more 45%Likeliest scores
1–114%0–110%1–09%
The match ended 2–3; before kick-off we gave this score 2%.Why did our pick miss?
We said “Montenegro score at most 1 goal”; the match had 5 goals, and we expected 2.5.
Expectation and actual
ExpectedActual
Goals2.55Close
Corners9.46Close
Scenario that happened“Montenegro win, 3+ goals” (before the match 21%, the 2nd likeliest scenario). The likeliest scenario, “Draw, 2 goals or fewer” (23%), did not happen.
How did the match go?
The chances we gave before the match; the one with the green frame happened.
Armenia win 32%Draw 30%Montenegro win 38%3+ goals3 or more goals · 45%2 goals or fewer2 goals or fewer · 55%
The chances we gave before the match; the green ones happened.
Who wins?
Armenia win32%Match result: Armenia · fair 3.10did not happen
Draw30%Match result: draw · fair 3.38did not happen
Montenegro win38%Match result: Montenegro · fair 2.63✓ happened
Who avoids defeat?
Armenia avoid defeat62%Double chance: Armenia or draw · fair 1.61did not happen
Montenegro avoid defeat68%Double chance: draw or Montenegro · fair 1.48✓ happened
No draw70%Double chance: Armenia or Montenegro · fair 1.42✓ happened
Result and goals together
Montenegro win, 3 goals or fewer30%Montenegro + under 3.5 · fair 3.31did not happen
By how many goals?
Montenegro don’t win by 2+ goals83%Handicap (Armenia +2): Armenia · fair 1.20✓ happened
Montenegro avoid defeat66%Handicap (Armenia -1): Montenegro · fair 1.51✓ happened
Armenia avoid defeat61%Handicap (Armenia +1): Armenia · fair 1.65did not happen
How many goals in the match?
At most 1 goal in the match30%Total goals under 1.5 · fair 3.53did not happen
2+ goals in the match72%Total goals over 1.5 · fair 1.40✓ happened
2 goals or fewer in the match54%Total goals under 2.5 · fair 1.86did not happen
3+ goals in the match46%Total goals over 2.5 · fair 2.17✓ happened
3 goals or fewer in the match75%Total goals under 3.5 · fair 1.35did not happen
4+ goals in the match25%fair 3.97
Do both teams score?
Both teams score51%Both teams to score: yes · fair 1.96✓ happened
Not both teams score49%Both teams to score: no · fair 2.04did not happen
How many goals do Armenia score?
Armenia fail to score30%Armenia goals under 0.5 · fair 3.36did not happen
Armenia score70%Armenia goals over 0.5 · fair 1.43✓ happened
Armenia score at most 1 goal66%Armenia goals under 1.5 · fair 1.50did not happen
Armenia score 2+ goals34%Armenia goals over 1.5 · fair 2.98✓ happened
How many goals do Montenegro score?
Montenegro fail to score30%Montenegro goals under 0.5 · fair 3.76did not happen
Montenegro score73%Montenegro goals over 0.5 · fair 1.36✓ happened
Montenegro score at most 1 goal62%Montenegro goals under 1.5 · fair 1.61did not happen
Montenegro score 2+ goals38%Montenegro goals over 1.5 · fair 2.65✓ happened
Which range do the goals fall in?
2–3 goals in the match47%Total goals 2-3 · fair 2.13did not happen
0–1 goals in the match30%Total goals 0-1 · fair 3.29did not happen
Odd or even number of goals?
Odd number of goals50%Total goals odd · fair 2.02✓ happened
Even number of goals50%Total goals even · fair 1.98did not happen
Goals and both teams scoring
2 goals or fewer, not both teams score41%Under 2.5 + both teams to score: no · fair 2.41did not happen
3+ goals, both teams score38%Over 2.5 + both teams to score: yes · fair 2.62✓ happened
Who leads at half-time?
Armenia lead at half-time26%fair 3.84
Level at half-time44%Half-time result: draw · fair 2.30did not happen
Montenegro lead at half-time30%Half-time result: Montenegro · fair 3.25✓ happened
How many goals in the first half?
No goals in the first half33%First half goals under 0.5 · fair 3.04did not happen
At least one goal in the first half67%First half goals over 0.5 · fair 1.49✓ happened
At most 1 goal in the first half69%First half goals under 1.5 · fair 1.45did not happen
2+ goals in the first half31%First half goals over 1.5 · fair 3.23✓ happened
Do both teams score in the first half?
Both teams score in the first half18%fair 5.49
Not both teams score in the first half82%First half, both teams to score: no · fair 1.22did not happen
Who wins the second half?
Armenia win the second half30%Second half result: Armenia · fair 3.32did not happen
Second half drawn38%Second half result: draw · fair 2.60✓ happened
Montenegro win the second half33%Second half result: Montenegro · fair 3.05did not happen
Which half has more goals?
More goals in the first half30%Higher-scoring half: first · fair 3.32✓ happened
Same number of goals in each half27%fair 3.75
More goals in the second half43%Higher-scoring half: second · fair 2.31did not happen
How many corners do Armenia have?
Armenia have 4 corners or fewer48%Armenia corners under 4.5 · fair 2.08✓ happened
Armenia have 5+ corners52%Armenia corners over 4.5 · fair 1.93did not happen
How many corners do Montenegro have?
Montenegro have 4 corners or fewer55%Montenegro corners under 4.5 · fair 1.82✓ happened
Montenegro have 5+ corners45%Montenegro corners over 4.5 · fair 2.22did not happen