Hit rate
57.4%
27 / 47 picks hit. On average the model expected a 62.2% hit rate; 2.2 fewer picks hit than expected.
Settled
47
0 pending
Days
5
4 days at 50% or more
By day
Each square is one pick: green hit, red missed, grey pending. Hover or tap for details.
Hits and expected
If the two lines run close together, the model’s chances are right.
By type
The vertical line on each bar is the hit rate the model expected for that group.
- Goals58% · 21/36
- Cards71% · 5/7
- Corners25% · 1/4
By chance
- Under 60%67% · 6/9
- 60–64%52% · 17/33
- 65% and over80% · 4/5
By league
- UEFA Nations League59% · 24/41
- LaLiga 250% · 3/6
Picks from the latest days
The last 14 days; older days are in “By day” above.
29 Sep6/9 hit
- Hit
Moldova
Faroe IslandsDouble chance: Moldova or draw65%Score 1-1 - Hit
Finland
BelarusHandicap (Finland -2): Belarus65%Pending - Hit
Scotland
SwitzerlandSwitzerland win either half: yes63%Pending - Hit
Slovakia
KazakhstanSlovakia win both halves: no66%Pending - Missed
Slovenia
North MacedoniaHandicap (Slovenia -2): North Macedonia68%Pending - Hit
Czechia
EnglandTotal goals under 3.564%2 goals in the match - Hit
Bulgaria
EstoniaTotal goals under 2.559%0 goals in the match - Missed
Spain
CroatiaSpain win both halves: no62%Pending - Missed
Luxembourg
IcelandIceland goals under 1.560%Iceland: 3 goals
28 Sep3/9 hit
- Hit
Georgia
UkraineDouble chance: draw or Ukraine65%Score 0-0 - Missed
Armenia
MontenegroMontenegro goals under 1.562%Montenegro: 3 goals - Missed
Latvia
CyprusFirst half goals over 0.563%Pending - Hit
Leganes
CastellonTotal cards over 4.560%8 cards in the match - Hit
Belgium
FranceFrance win either half: yes65%Pending - Missed
Türkiye
ItalyTotal goals under 3.563%5 goals in the match - Missed
Romania
Bosnia and HerzegovinaRomania goals under 1.561%Romania: 2 goals - Missed
Sweden
PolandTotal goals under 3.564%4 goals in the match - Missed
Northern Ireland
HungaryTotal goals over 1.564%0 goals in the match
27 Sep7/12 hit
- Missed
Valladolid
CordobaCordoba corners under 4.558%Cordoba: 5 corners - Hit
Lithuania
AzerbaijanFirst half goals over 0.558%Pending - Hit
Mallorca
AlmeriaAlmeria corners under 4.569%Almeria: 2 corners - Missed
Gibraltar
AndorraAndorra goals over 0.562%Andorra: 0 goals - Hit
Serbia
NetherlandsTotal goals under 3.559%3 goals in the match - Hit
Austria
KosovoTotal cards under 4.558%4 cards in the match - Hit
Denmark
WalesFirst half goals under 1.560%Pending - Hit
Burgos
EldenseEldense win either half: no61%Pending - Missed
Eibar
Las PalmasEibar corners under 5.561%Eibar: 6 corners - Hit
Germany
GreeceFirst half goals under 1.559%Pending - Missed
Norway
PortugalNorway win either half: yes59%Pending - Missed
Oviedo
Sporting GijónTotal cards under 6.564%11 cards in the match
26 Sep7/9 hit
- HitSloveniaScotlandDouble chance: draw or Scotland63%Score 0-0
- HitIcelandEstoniaTotal goals under 3.563%2 goals in the match
- HitFaroe IslandsKazakhstanTotal goals under 2.562%2 goals in the match
- HitBulgariaLuxembourgLuxembourg goals over 0.563%Luxembourg: 2 goals
- HitCzechiaCroatiaTotal cards under 4.561%3 cards in the match
- MissedSlovakiaMoldovaTotal goals over 2.562%2 goals in the match
- HitNorth MacedoniaSwitzerlandSwitzerland goals over 1.563%Switzerland: 3 goals
- MissedEnglandSpainEngland goals under 1.564%England: 2 goals
- Hit
AlbaniaBelarusMatch result: Albania63%Score 2-0
25 Sep4/8 hit
- HitGeorgiaNorthern IrelandTotal cards under 4.562%4 cards in the match
- MissedArmeniaLatviaLatvia goals over 0.560%Latvia: 0 goals
- MissedTürkiyeFranceTürkiye goals over 0.563%Türkiye: 0 goals
- HitMontenegroCyprusCyprus goals over 0.559%Cyprus: 1 goal
- HitPolandBosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina cards over 1.562%Bosnia and Herzegovina: 5 cards
- MissedHungaryUkraineTotal cards under 4.562%9 cards in the match
- MissedItalyBelgiumTotal corners under 10.561%12 corners in the match
- HitSwedenRomaniaSweden goals under 2.564%Sweden: 2 goals
One shots suggestion and one goalkeeper saves suggestion for every match. They are saved before kick-off and cannot be changed afterwards; the ones that miss stay on the record. The result comes from the shot and save counts in the official full-time statistics.
Shots
8/9
Hit 89% · expected 63%
Saves
4/7
Hit 57% · expected 57%
- Slovenia – North MacedoniaAt least 22 shots in the matchSlovenia – North Macedonia65%Fair 1.54Hit25 in the match
- Spain – CroatiaAt least 26 shots in the matchSpain – Croatia63%Fair 1.59Missed21 in the match
- Czechia – EnglandAt least 25 shots in the matchCzechia – England63%Fair 1.58Hit28 in the match
- Scotland – SwitzerlandSwitzerland: at least 14 shotsScotland – Switzerland54%Fair 1.84Hit23 in the match
- Spain – CroatiaDominik Livakovic: at least 4 savesSpain – Croatia61%Fair 1.64Missed3 in the match
- Czechia – EnglandLukas Hornicek: at least 4 savesCzechia – England59%Fair 1.71Hit4 in the match
- Scotland – SwitzerlandAt least 6 saves in the matchScotland – Switzerland53%Fair 1.88Hit6 in the match
- Sweden – PolandAt least 22 shots in the matchSweden – Poland77%Fair 1.30Hit30 in the match
- Belgium – FranceAt least 27 shots in the matchBelgium – France64%Fair 1.56Hit30 in the match
- Northern Ireland – HungaryNorthern Ireland: at least 10 shotsNorthern Ireland – Hungary63%Fair 1.59Hit10 in the match
- Türkiye – ItalyTürkiye: at least 13 shotsTürkiye – Italy57%Fair 1.74Hit15 in the match
- Romania – Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina: at least 10 shotsRomania – Bosnia and Herzegovina60%Fair 1.67Hit15 in the match
- Sweden – PolandMarcin Bulka: at least 3 savesSweden – Poland55%Fair 1.81Hit3 in the match
- Belgium – FranceAt least 6 saves in the matchBelgium – France64%Fair 1.55Hit7 in the match
- Northern Ireland – HungaryPierce Charles: at least 3 savesNorthern Ireland – Hungary50%Fair 2.00Missed1 in the match
- Türkiye – ItalyGianluigi Donnarumma: at least 3 savesTürkiye – Italy59%Fair 1.70Missed1 in the match
Every day we publish a few pairs (2 matches, a good chance of hitting) and a “pair of the day”. Lists are kept out of the pick record: easy selections with a very high chance would push the hit rate up artificially. Here, for each type of list, the promised chance next to what happened, then the lists that hit and every list by day; the ones that miss stay on the record.
Pairs
10/18
Hit 56% · expected 52%
Pair of the day
2/4
Hit 50% · expected 48%
20% chance
0/1
Hit 0% · expected 19%
33% chance
0/1
Hit 0% · expected 33%
67% chance
1/1
Hit 100% · expected 65%
Latest lists that hit
Newest first. The ones that missed are in the history below too.
- Pair 1 · 29 Sep48%chance to hit · fair 2.10Hit
- Pair 4 · 29 Sep47%chance to hit · fair 2.15Hit
- Pair of the day · 29 Sep43%chance to hit · fair 2.32Hit
- Pair 2 · 28 Sep57%chance to hit · fair 1.75Hit
- Pair 4 · 28 Sep53%chance to hit · fair 1.87Hit
- Pair 5 · 28 Sep53%chance to hit · fair 1.90Hit
List history
Each square is a list: green hit, red missed, grey pending.
29 Sep3/7 hit
- Pair 148%chance to hit · fair 2.10Hit
- Pair 247%chance to hit · fair 2.11Missed
- Pair 347%chance to hit · fair 2.12Missed
- Pair 447%chance to hit · fair 2.15Hit
- Pair 545%chance to hit · fair 2.23Missed
- Pair 645%chance to hit · fair 2.23Missed
- Pair of the day43%chance to hit · fair 2.32Hit
28 Sep5/7 hit
- Pair 157%chance to hit · fair 1.74Missed
- Pair 257%chance to hit · fair 1.75Hit
- Pair 355%chance to hit · fair 1.81Missed
- Pair 453%chance to hit · fair 1.87Hit
- Pair 553%chance to hit · fair 1.90Hit
- Pair 652%chance to hit · fair 1.91Hit
- Pair of the day51%chance to hit · fair 1.96Hit
27 Sep4/7 hit
- Pair 157%chance to hit · fair 1.74Missed
- Pair 257%chance to hit · fair 1.76Missed
- Pair 356%chance to hit · fair 1.78Hit
- Pair 455%chance to hit · fair 1.81Hit
- Pair 555%chance to hit · fair 1.82Hit
- Pair 655%chance to hit · fair 1.83Hit
- Pair of the day49%chance to hit · fair 2.06Missed
26 Sep1/4 hit
- 67% chance65%chance to hit · fair 1.54Hit
- Pair of the day49%chance to hit · fair 2.05Missed
- 33% chance33%chance to hit · fair 3.06Missed
- 20% chance19%chance to hit · fair 5.37Missed
This section is not published picks. We ran the same model on 13,174 past matches: each season was trained only on the seasons before it, and for each match we used only what was known before kick-off. One pick per match: not the very easy options, only those the market gives at most a 67% chance.
Hit rate
61.9%
8,156 / 13,174 picks hit. On average the model expected a 61.6% hit rate.
Picks
13,174
one pick per match, never the very easy options
Difference
+0.3
points, actual − expected
By month
Each square is a month. Dark indigo is 68% and above, red is under 56%; faded squares are months with fewer than 15 picks. Hover to see the number of picks and the hit rate.
| Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 65 | 56 | ||||||||||
| 2025-26 | 60 | 60 | 56 | 62 | 64 | 57 | 71 | 66 | 61 | 61 | ||
| 2024-25 | 60 | 68 | 63 | 55 | 62 | 60 | 69 | 64 | 61 | 62 | 50 | |
| 2023-24 | 59 | 62 | 65 | 59 | 64 | 62 | 61 | 62 | 58 | 65 | 100 | |
| 2022-23 | 65 | 63 | 68 | 66 | 73 | 62 | 65 | 59 | 59 | 64 | 70 | |
| 2021-22 | 65 | 67 | 59 | 61 | 58 | 62 | 55 | 64 | 61 | 65 | ||
| 2020-21 | 75 | 63 | 63 | 60 | 63 | 59 | 63 | 59 | 57 | 58 |
By type
- Goals63% · 5,225
- Corners60% · 2,461
- Shots on target63% · 2,066
- Shots60% · 1,940
- Cards63% · 1,482
By league
- LaLiga63% · 2,349
- Premier League62% · 2,330
- Serie A61% · 2,328
- Süper Lig62% · 2,193
- Ligue 161% · 2,103
- Bundesliga63% · 1,871
By chance
- 60–64%62% · 12,686
- Under 60%62% · 478
- 65% and over90% · 10
Matches in the test
13,174 picks · page 1/549
- Missed
20 Sept 2026
Göztepe
Çaykur RizesporÇaykur Rizespor goals under 1.562%Çaykur Rizespor: 2 goals - Hit20 Sept 2026
Fenerbahçe
EyüpsporFenerbahçe shots on target over 6.559%Fenerbahçe: 13 shots on target - Hit20 Sept 2026
Erzurumspor
SamsunsporTotal cards over 3.561%5 cards in the match - Missed20 Sept 2026
Amedspor
BeşiktaşBeşiktaş corners under 5.561%Beşiktaş: 10 corners - Missed
20 Sept 2026
VillarrealLevanteVillarreal goals under 2.562%Villarreal: 3 goals - Missed20 Sept 2026
Valencia
Real SociedadDouble chance: Valencia or draw63%Score 2-3 - Missed20 Sept 2026
Deportivo La Coruña
Real BetisDeportivo La Coruña shots on target under 4.561%Deportivo La Coruña: 7 shots on target - Missed20 Sept 2026
Getafe
MálagaTotal goals over 1.562%1 goal in the match - Hit20 Sept 2026
Atlético Madrid
Real MadridTotal shots over 25.561%26 shots in the match - Hit
20 Sept 2026
Parma
GenoaDouble chance: Parma or draw62%Score 2-1 - Hit20 Sept 2026
Milan
LecceLecce cards under 2.562%Lecce: 1 card - Missed20 Sept 2026
Juventus
AtalantaAtalanta goals over 0.562%Atalanta: 0 goals - Missed20 Sept 2026
Frosinone
ComoMatch result: Como62%Score 2-0 - Missed20 Sept 2026
Fiorentina
NapoliTotal shots under 27.562%30 shots in the match - Missed
20 Sept 2026
Nice
LilleLille shots under 13.561%Lille: 21 shots - Hit20 Sept 2026
Marseille
Paris Saint-GermainMarseille shots over 9.562%Marseille: 12 shots - Missed20 Sept 2026
Auxerre
BrestAuxerre goals under 1.562%Auxerre: 2 goals - Missed
20 Sept 2026
Manchester City
SunderlandTotal goals under 3.563%8 goals in the match - Hit20 Sept 2026
Leeds United
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace corners under 4.561%Crystal Palace: 3 corners - Hit20 Sept 2026
Fulham
Manchester UnitedTotal goals under 3.562%2 goals in the match - Missed20 Sept 2026
Bournemouth
LiverpoolTotal goals over 2.562%1 goal in the match - Hit
20 Sept 2026
Schalke 04
ElversbergElversberg cards under 2.561%Elversberg: 2 cards - Missed20 Sept 2026
Paderborn
HoffenheimTotal cards over 3.561%1 card in the match - Hit20 Sept 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
RB LeipzigBayer Leverkusen shots on target under 6.561%Bayer Leverkusen: 6 shots on target
Do the chances match reality?
Hit rate by the chance’s upper limit
| 77% or lower | 72% | |
|---|---|---|
| 71% or lower | 67% | |
| 67% or lower | 62% | |
| 63% or lower | 58% | |
| 59% or lower | 55% |
We only publish options the market gives at most a 67% chance; we leave out the very easy ones.