How did our suggestions turn out?
SolidHit
Slovenia avoid defeatDouble chance: Slovenia or draw84%we said so
Score 2-0
Most likelyMissed
Slovenia don’t win by 2+ goalsHandicap (Slovenia -2): North Macedonia68%we said so
Score 2–0
SurpriseMissed
Slovenia win, 3+ goalsSlovenia + over 2.531%we said so
Score 2–0
4 of 6 suggestions hit
Other strong options:Slovenia score79%North Macedonia win neither half73%At most 1 goal in the first half73%
Who wins? · pre-match
59%Slovenia27%Draw15%North Macedonia
Result: Slovenia wonHow many goals?expected 2.3 · actual 2
012345+
2 goals or fewer 61% · 3 or more 39%Likeliest scores
1–016%2–013%1–112%
The match ended 2–0; before kick-off we gave this score 13%.Why did our pick miss?
We said “Slovenia don’t win by 2+ goals”; the match had 2 goals, and we expected 2.3.
Expectation and actual
ExpectedActual
Goals2.32Hit
Corners9.09Hit
Scenario that happened“Slovenia win, 2 goals or fewer” (before the match 29%, the 2nd likeliest scenario). The likeliest scenario, “Slovenia win, 3+ goals” (29%), did not happen.
How did the match go?
The chances we gave before the match; the one with the green frame happened.
Slovenia win 59%Draw 27%North Macedonia win 15%3+ goals3 or more goals · 39%2 goals or fewer2 goals or fewer · 61%
The chances we gave before the match; the green ones happened.
Who wins?
Slovenia win59%Match result: Slovenia · fair 1.71✓ happened
Draw27%fair 3.75
North Macedonia win15%fair 6.75
Who avoids defeat?
Slovenia avoid defeat84%Double chance: Slovenia or draw · fair 1.19✓ happened
North Macedonia avoid defeat41%Double chance: draw or North Macedonia · fair 2.41did not happen
No draw73%Double chance: Slovenia or North Macedonia · fair 1.36✓ happened
Do Slovenia win without conceding?
Slovenia win without conceding40%Slovenia win to nil: yes · fair 2.47✓ happened
Slovenia don’t win without conceding60%Slovenia win to nil: no · fair 1.68did not happen
Result and goals together
Slovenia win, 3 goals or fewer45%Slovenia + under 3.5 · fair 2.20✓ happened
Slovenia win, 2+ goals43%Slovenia + over 1.5 · fair 2.34✓ happened
Slovenia win, 3+ goals31%Slovenia + over 2.5 · fair 3.26did not happen
Slovenia win, not both teams score40%Slovenia + both teams to score: no · fair 2.47✓ happened
By how many goals?
Slovenia don’t win by 2+ goals68%Handicap (Slovenia -2): North Macedonia · fair 1.47did not happen
North Macedonia avoid defeat41%Handicap (Slovenia -1): North Macedonia · fair 2.45did not happen
Slovenia win by 2+ goals32%Handicap (Slovenia -1): Slovenia · fair 3.12✓ happened
How many goals in the match?
At most 1 goal in the match34%Total goals under 1.5 · fair 2.90did not happen
2+ goals in the match66%Total goals over 1.5 · fair 1.52✓ happened
2 goals or fewer in the match61%Total goals under 2.5 · fair 1.65✓ happened
3+ goals in the match39%Total goals over 2.5 · fair 2.54did not happen
3 goals or fewer in the match80%Total goals under 3.5 · fair 1.26✓ happened
4+ goals in the match20%fair 5.03
Do both teams score?
Both teams score39%Both teams to score: yes · fair 2.56did not happen
Not both teams score61%Both teams to score: no · fair 1.64✓ happened
How many goals do Slovenia score?
Slovenia fail to score21%fair 4.84
Slovenia score79%Slovenia goals over 0.5 · fair 1.26✓ happened
Slovenia score at most 1 goal53%Slovenia goals under 1.5 · fair 1.90did not happen
Slovenia score 2+ goals47%Slovenia goals over 1.5 · fair 2.11✓ happened
Slovenia score 2 goals or fewer78%Slovenia goals under 2.5 · fair 1.28✓ happened
Slovenia score 3+ goals22%fair 4.63
How many goals do North Macedonia score?
North Macedonia fail to score51%North Macedonia goals under 0.5 · fair 1.95✓ happened
North Macedonia score49%North Macedonia goals over 0.5 · fair 2.05did not happen
North Macedonia score at most 1 goal83%North Macedonia goals under 1.5 · fair 1.21✓ happened
North Macedonia score 2+ goals17%fair 5.83
Which range do the goals fall in?
2–3 goals in the match47%Total goals 2-3 · fair 2.14✓ happened
0–1 goals in the match34%Total goals 0-1 · fair 2.93did not happen
Goals and both teams scoring
2 goals or fewer, not both teams score50%Under 2.5 + both teams to score: no · fair 2.02✓ happened
3+ goals, both teams score31%Over 2.5 + both teams to score: yes · fair 3.26did not happen
Who leads at half-time?
Slovenia lead at half-time40%Half-time result: Slovenia · fair 2.51did not happen
Level at half-time45%Half-time result: draw · fair 2.22✓ happened
North Macedonia lead at half-time15%fair 6.82
How many goals in the first half?
No goals in the first half37%First half goals under 0.5 · fair 2.69✓ happened
At least one goal in the first half63%First half goals over 0.5 · fair 1.59did not happen
At most 1 goal in the first half73%First half goals under 1.5 · fair 1.39✓ happened
2+ goals in the first half27%fair 3.65
Who wins the second half?
Slovenia win the second half46%Second half result: Slovenia · fair 2.17✓ happened
Second half drawn39%Second half result: draw · fair 2.58did not happen
North Macedonia win the second half15%fair 6.61
Which half has more goals?
More goals in the second half42%Higher-scoring half: second · fair 2.38✓ happened
Do Slovenia win at least one half?
Slovenia win at least one half68%Slovenia win either half: yes · fair 1.47✓ happened
Slovenia win neither half32%Slovenia win either half: no · fair 3.14did not happen
Do North Macedonia win at least one half?
North Macedonia win at least one half27%fair 3.68
North Macedonia win neither half73%North Macedonia win either half: no · fair 1.37✓ happened
Do Slovenia win both halves?
Slovenia win both halves19%fair 5.29
Slovenia don’t win both halves81%Slovenia win both halves: no · fair 1.23✓ happened
Half-time and full-time result
Slovenia lead at half-time, Slovenia win the match36%Half-time/full-time: Slovenia / Slovenia · fair 2.74did not happen
How many corners do Slovenia have?
Slovenia have 5 corners or fewer53%Slovenia corners under 5.5 · fair 1.90did not happen
Slovenia have 6+ corners47%Slovenia corners over 5.5 · fair 2.11✓ happened
How many corners do North Macedonia have?
North Macedonia have 3 corners or fewer58%North Macedonia corners under 3.5 · fair 1.73✓ happened
North Macedonia have 4+ corners42%North Macedonia corners over 3.5 · fair 2.37did not happen