How did our suggestions turn out?
SolidMissed
Not both teams score in the first halfFirst half, both teams to score: no82%we said so
Score 2–4
Most likelyMissed
Romania score at most 1 goalRomania goals under 1.561%we said so
Romania: 2 goals
SurpriseMissed
2–3 goals in the matchTotal goals 2-347%we said so
Score 2–4
2 of 6 suggestions hit
Other strong options:Romania don’t win without conceding77%3 goals or fewer in the match75%No draw71%
Who wins? · pre-match
40%Romania29%Draw32%Bosnia and Herzegovina
Result: Bosnia and Herzegovina wonHow many goals?expected 2.5 · actual 6
012345+
2 goals or fewer 54% · 3 or more 46%Likeliest scores
1–114%1–010%0–19%
The match ended 2–4; before kick-off we gave this score 1%.Why did our pick miss?
We said “Romania score at most 1 goal”; the match had 6 goals, and we expected 2.5.
Expectation and actual
ExpectedActual
Goals2.56Far off
Cards5.22Close
Corners9.07Hit
Scenario that happened“Bosnia and Herzegovina win, 3+ goals” (before the match 17%, the 4th likeliest scenario). The likeliest scenario, “Draw, 2 goals or fewer” (22%), did not happen.
How did the match go?
The chances we gave before the match; the one with the green frame happened.
Romania win 40%Draw 29%Bosnia and Herzegovina win 32%3+ goals3 or more goals · 46%2 goals or fewer2 goals or fewer · 54%
The chances we gave before the match; the green ones happened.
Who wins?
Romania win40%Match result: Romania · fair 2.52did not happen
Draw29%fair 3.48
Bosnia and Herzegovina win32%Match result: Bosnia and Herzegovina · fair 3.17✓ happened
Who avoids defeat?
Romania avoid defeat68%Double chance: Romania or draw · fair 1.46did not happen
Bosnia and Herzegovina avoid defeat60%Double chance: draw or Bosnia and Herzegovina · fair 1.66✓ happened
No draw71%Double chance: Romania or Bosnia and Herzegovina · fair 1.40✓ happened
Do Romania win without conceding?
Romania win without conceding23%fair 4.38
Romania don’t win without conceding77%Romania win to nil: no · fair 1.30✓ happened
Result and goals together
Romania win, 2+ goals34%Romania + over 1.5 · fair 2.98did not happen
Romania win, 3 goals or fewer33%Romania + under 3.5 · fair 3.07did not happen
By how many goals?
Romania don’t win by 2+ goals81%Handicap (Romania -2): Bosnia and Herzegovina · fair 1.23✓ happened
Romania avoid defeat67%Handicap (Romania +1): Romania · fair 1.48did not happen
Bosnia and Herzegovina avoid defeat59%Handicap (Romania -1): Bosnia and Herzegovina · fair 1.69✓ happened
How many goals in the match?
At most 1 goal in the match28%fair 3.53
2+ goals in the match72%Total goals over 1.5 · fair 1.40✓ happened
2 goals or fewer in the match54%Total goals under 2.5 · fair 1.86did not happen
3+ goals in the match46%Total goals over 2.5 · fair 2.16✓ happened
3 goals or fewer in the match75%Total goals under 3.5 · fair 1.35did not happen
4+ goals in the match25%fair 3.93
Do both teams score?
Both teams score51%Both teams to score: yes · fair 1.96✓ happened
Not both teams score49%Both teams to score: no · fair 2.05did not happen
How many goals do Romania score?
Romania fail to score26%fair 3.85
Romania score74%Romania goals over 0.5 · fair 1.35✓ happened
Romania score at most 1 goal61%Romania goals under 1.5 · fair 1.64did not happen
Romania score 2+ goals39%Romania goals over 1.5 · fair 2.56✓ happened
Romania score 2 goals or fewer83%Romania goals under 2.5 · fair 1.21✓ happened
Romania score 3+ goals17%fair 5.81
How many goals do Bosnia and Herzegovina score?
Bosnia and Herzegovina fail to score31%Bosnia and Herzegovina goals under 0.5 · fair 3.26did not happen
Bosnia and Herzegovina score69%Bosnia and Herzegovina goals over 0.5 · fair 1.44✓ happened
Bosnia and Herzegovina score at most 1 goal67%Bosnia and Herzegovina goals under 1.5 · fair 1.49did not happen
Bosnia and Herzegovina score 2+ goals33%Bosnia and Herzegovina goals over 1.5 · fair 3.05✓ happened
Which range do the goals fall in?
2–3 goals in the match47%Total goals 2-3 · fair 2.13did not happen
Odd or even number of goals?
Odd number of goals50%Total goals odd · fair 2.01did not happen
Even number of goals50%Total goals even · fair 1.99✓ happened
Goals and both teams scoring
2 goals or fewer, not both teams score41%Under 2.5 + both teams to score: no · fair 2.43did not happen
3+ goals, both teams score38%Over 2.5 + both teams to score: yes · fair 2.60✓ happened
Who leads at half-time?
Romania lead at half-time31%Half-time result: Romania · fair 3.22did not happen
Level at half-time43%Half-time result: draw · fair 2.31did not happen
Bosnia and Herzegovina lead at half-time26%fair 3.90
How many goals in the first half?
No goals in the first half33%First half goals under 0.5 · fair 3.06did not happen
At least one goal in the first half67%First half goals over 0.5 · fair 1.49✓ happened
At most 1 goal in the first half69%First half goals under 1.5 · fair 1.45did not happen
2+ goals in the first half31%First half goals over 1.5 · fair 3.22✓ happened
Do both teams score in the first half?
Both teams score in the first half18%fair 5.45
Not both teams score in the first half82%First half, both teams to score: no · fair 1.22did not happen
Who wins the second half?
Romania win the second half34%Second half result: Romania · fair 2.97did not happen
Second half drawn38%Second half result: draw · fair 2.61✓ happened
Bosnia and Herzegovina win the second half28%fair 3.57
Which half has more goals?
More goals in the first half30%Higher-scoring half: first · fair 3.32✓ happened
Same number of goals in each half27%fair 3.76
More goals in the second half43%Higher-scoring half: second · fair 2.31did not happen
Do Romania win at least one half?
Romania win at least one half54%Romania win either half: yes · fair 1.85did not happen
Romania win neither half46%Romania win either half: no · fair 2.18✓ happened
Do Bosnia and Herzegovina win at least one half?
Bosnia and Herzegovina win at least one half47%Bosnia and Herzegovina win either half: yes · fair 2.15✓ happened
Bosnia and Herzegovina win neither half53%Bosnia and Herzegovina win either half: no · fair 1.87did not happen
How many corners do Romania have?
Romania have 4 corners or fewer47%Romania corners under 4.5 · fair 2.13✓ happened
Romania have 5+ corners53%Romania corners over 4.5 · fair 1.88did not happen
How many corners do Bosnia and Herzegovina have?
Bosnia and Herzegovina have 3 corners or fewer48%Bosnia and Herzegovina corners under 3.5 · fair 2.10✓ happened
Bosnia and Herzegovina have 4+ corners52%Bosnia and Herzegovina corners over 3.5 · fair 1.91did not happen
How many cards in the match?
4 cards or fewer in the match42%Total cards under 4.5 · fair 2.38✓ happened
5+ cards in the match58%Total cards over 4.5 · fair 1.73did not happen
5 cards or fewer in the match58%Total cards under 5.5 · fair 1.73✓ happened
6+ cards in the match42%Total cards over 5.5 · fair 2.38did not happen
6 cards or fewer in the match68%Total cards under 6.5 · fair 1.46✓ happened
7+ cards in the match32%Total cards over 6.5 · fair 3.17did not happen