How did our suggestions turn out?
SolidHit
Moldova score at most 1 goalMoldova goals under 1.589%we said so
Moldova: 0 goals
Most likelyMissed
3+ goals in the matchTotal goals over 2.562%we said so
2 goals in the match
SurpriseMissed
Slovakia win, 4+ goalsSlovakia + over 3.536%we said so
Score 2–0
3 of 6 suggestions hit
Other strong options:At least one goal in the first half75%Slovakia score 2+ goals74%Slovakia win the second half68%
Who wins? · pre-match
82%Slovakia13%Draw6%Moldova
Result: Slovakia wonHow many goals?expected 3.2 · actual 2
012345+
2 goals or fewer 38% · 3 or more 62%Likeliest scores
2–014%3–013%1–011%
The match ended 2–0; before kick-off we gave this score 14%.Why did our pick miss?
We said “3+ goals in the match”; the match had 2 goals, and we expected 3.2.
Expectation and actual
ExpectedActual
Goals3.22Hit
Corners9.510Hit
Scenario that happened“Slovakia win, 2 goals or fewer” (before the match 25%, the 2nd likeliest scenario). The likeliest scenario, “Slovakia win, 3+ goals” (56%), did not happen.
How did the match go?
The chances we gave before the match; the one with the green frame happened.
Slovakia win 82%Draw 13%Moldova win 6%3+ goals3 or more goals · 62%2 goals or fewer2 goals or fewer · 38%
The chances we gave before the match; the green ones happened.
Who wins?
Slovakia win84%Match result: Slovakia · fair 1.23✓ happened
Draw13%fair 7.96
Moldova win6%fair 17.04
Who avoids defeat?
Slovakia avoid defeat94%fair 1.06
Moldova avoid defeat18%fair 5.43
No draw87%Double chance: Slovakia or Moldova · fair 1.14✓ happened
Result and goals together
Slovakia win, 2+ goals72%Slovakia + over 1.5 · fair 1.39✓ happened
Slovakia win, 3+ goals57%Slovakia + over 2.5 · fair 1.77did not happen
Slovakia win, 3 goals or fewer48%Slovakia + under 3.5 · fair 2.09✓ happened
Slovakia win, 4+ goals36%Slovakia + over 3.5 · fair 2.80did not happen
Slovakia win, not both teams score57%Slovakia + both teams to score: no · fair 1.74✓ happened
By how many goals?
Slovakia win by 2+ goals63%Handicap (Slovakia -1): Slovakia · fair 1.59✓ happened
Slovakia win by 3+ goals40%Handicap (Slovakia -2): Slovakia · fair 2.51did not happen
Slovakia don’t win by 2+ goals37%Handicap (Slovakia -2): Moldova · fair 2.69did not happen
How many goals in the match?
At most 1 goal in the match18%fair 5.57
2+ goals in the match82%Total goals over 1.5 · fair 1.23✓ happened
2 goals or fewer in the match39%Total goals under 2.5 · fair 2.60✓ happened
3+ goals in the match62%Total goals over 2.5 · fair 1.63did not happen
3 goals or fewer in the match62%Total goals under 3.5 · fair 1.65✓ happened
4+ goals in the match38%Total goals over 3.5 · fair 2.54did not happen
4 goals or fewer in the match79%Total goals under 4.5 · fair 1.28✓ happened
5+ goals in the match21%fair 4.80
Do both teams score?
Both teams score36%Both teams to score: yes · fair 2.61did not happen
Not both teams score64%Both teams to score: no · fair 1.62✓ happened
How many goals do Slovakia score?
Slovakia score at most 1 goal26%fair 3.89
Slovakia score 2+ goals74%Slovakia goals over 1.5 · fair 1.33✓ happened
Slovakia score 2 goals or fewer50%Slovakia goals under 2.5 · fair 2.00✓ happened
Slovakia score 3+ goals50%Slovakia goals over 2.5 · fair 2.00did not happen
How many goals do Moldova score?
Moldova fail to score62%Moldova goals under 0.5 · fair 1.66✓ happened
Moldova score38%Moldova goals over 0.5 · fair 2.50did not happen
Moldova score at most 1 goal89%Moldova goals under 1.5 · fair 1.12✓ happened
Moldova score 2+ goals11%fair 9.31
Which range do the goals fall in?
2–3 goals in the match44%Total goals 2-3 · fair 2.29✓ happened
Goals and both teams scoring
2 goals or fewer, not both teams score34%Under 2.5 + both teams to score: no · fair 2.96✓ happened
3+ goals, not both teams score31%Over 2.5 + both teams to score: no · fair 3.26did not happen
Who leads at half-time?
Slovakia lead at half-time62%Half-time result: Slovakia · fair 1.62✓ happened
Level at half-time31%Half-time result: draw · fair 3.18did not happen
Moldova lead at half-time7%fair 14.98
How many goals in the first half?
No goals in the first half25%fair 4.04
At least one goal in the first half75%First half goals over 0.5 · fair 1.33✓ happened
At most 1 goal in the first half59%First half goals under 1.5 · fair 1.69did not happen
2+ goals in the first half41%First half goals over 1.5 · fair 2.46✓ happened
2 goals or fewer in the first half83%First half goals under 2.5 · fair 1.20✓ happened
3+ goals in the first half17%fair 6.04
Who wins the second half?
Slovakia win the second half68%Second half result: Slovakia · fair 1.46did not happen
Which half has more goals?
More goals in the first half31%Higher-scoring half: first · fair 3.23✓ happened
Same number of goals in each half23%fair 4.29
More goals in the second half46%Higher-scoring half: second · fair 2.19did not happen
Do Slovakia win both halves?
Slovakia win both halves42%Slovakia win both halves: yes · fair 2.36did not happen
Slovakia don’t win both halves58%Slovakia win both halves: no · fair 1.73✓ happened
Half-time and full-time result
Slovakia lead at half-time, Slovakia win the match60%Half-time/full-time: Slovakia / Slovakia · fair 1.68✓ happened
How many corners do Slovakia have?
Slovakia have 6 corners or fewer47%Slovakia corners under 6.5 · fair 2.13did not happen
Slovakia have 7+ corners53%Slovakia corners over 6.5 · fair 1.89✓ happened
How many corners do Moldova have?
Moldova have 2 corners or fewer51%Moldova corners under 2.5 · fair 1.84did not happen
Moldova have 3+ corners49%Moldova corners over 2.5 · fair 2.19✓ happened