How did our suggestions turn out?
SolidHit
Poland score 2 goals or fewerPoland goals under 2.587%we said so
Poland: 1 goal
Most likelyMissed
3 goals or fewer in the matchTotal goals under 3.564%we said so
4 goals in the match
SurpriseHit
Sweden win, 3+ goalsSweden + over 2.532%we said so
Score 3–1
3 of 6 suggestions hit
Other strong options:Not both teams score in the first half77%Sweden don’t win without conceding77%Sweden score 2 goals or fewer75%
Who wins? · pre-match
47%Sweden26%Draw27%Poland
Result: Sweden wonHow many goals?expected 3.0 · actual 4
012345+
2 goals or fewer 43% · 3 or more 57%Likeliest scores
1–112%2–19%1–09%
The match ended 3–1; before kick-off we gave this score 5%.Why did our pick miss?
We said “3 goals or fewer in the match”; the match had 4 goals, and we expected 3.0.
Expectation and actual
ExpectedActual
Goals3.04Hit
Cards4.04Hit
Corners9.38Hit
Scenario that happened“Sweden win, 3+ goals” (before the match 31%, the 1st likeliest scenario).
How did the match go?
The chances we gave before the match; the one with the green frame happened.
Sweden win 47%Draw 26%Poland win 27%3+ goals3 or more goals · 57%2 goals or fewer2 goals or fewer · 43%
The chances we gave before the match; the green ones happened.
Who wins?
Sweden win47%Match result: Sweden · fair 2.12✓ happened
Draw26%fair 3.89
Poland win27%fair 3.69
Who avoids defeat?
Sweden avoid defeat73%Double chance: Sweden or draw · fair 1.37✓ happened
Poland avoid defeat53%Double chance: draw or Poland · fair 1.89did not happen
No draw74%Double chance: Sweden or Poland · fair 1.35✓ happened
Do Sweden win without conceding?
Sweden win without conceding23%fair 4.32
Sweden don’t win without conceding77%Sweden win to nil: no · fair 1.30✓ happened
Result and goals together
Sweden win, 2+ goals39%Sweden + over 1.5 · fair 2.53✓ happened
Sweden win, 3+ goals32%Sweden + over 2.5 · fair 3.13✓ happened
Sweden win, 3 goals or fewer31%Sweden + under 3.5 · fair 3.27did not happen
By how many goals?
Sweden don’t win by 2+ goals74%Handicap (Sweden -2): Poland · fair 1.35did not happen
Sweden avoid defeat72%Handicap (Sweden +1): Sweden · fair 1.39✓ happened
Poland avoid defeat52%Handicap (Sweden -1): Poland · fair 1.93did not happen
How many goals in the match?
At most 1 goal in the match20%fair 4.92
2+ goals in the match80%Total goals over 1.5 · fair 1.26✓ happened
2 goals or fewer in the match42%Total goals under 2.5 · fair 2.36did not happen
3+ goals in the match58%Total goals over 2.5 · fair 1.74✓ happened
3 goals or fewer in the match64%Total goals under 3.5 · fair 1.57did not happen
4+ goals in the match36%Total goals over 3.5 · fair 2.74✓ happened
4 goals or fewer in the match81%Total goals under 4.5 · fair 1.25✓ happened
5+ goals in the match19%fair 5.19
Do both teams score?
Both teams score59%Both teams to score: yes · fair 1.70✓ happened
Not both teams score41%Both teams to score: no · fair 2.44did not happen
How many goals do Sweden score?
Sweden fail to score18%fair 5.60
Sweden score82%Sweden goals over 0.5 · fair 1.22✓ happened
Sweden score at most 1 goal48%Sweden goals under 1.5 · fair 2.08did not happen
Sweden score 2+ goals52%Sweden goals over 1.5 · fair 1.93✓ happened
Sweden score 2 goals or fewer75%Sweden goals under 2.5 · fair 1.35did not happen
Sweden score 3+ goals25%fair 3.92
How many goals do Poland score?
Poland fail to score30%Poland goals under 0.5 · fair 3.60did not happen
Poland score72%Poland goals over 0.5 · fair 1.39✓ happened
Poland score at most 1 goal64%Poland goals under 1.5 · fair 1.58✓ happened
Poland score 2+ goals36%Poland goals over 1.5 · fair 2.74did not happen
Poland score 2 goals or fewer87%Poland goals under 2.5 · fair 1.15✓ happened
Poland score 3+ goals13%fair 7.50
Which range do the goals fall in?
2–3 goals in the match45%Total goals 2-3 · fair 2.23did not happen
Odd or even number of goals?
Odd number of goals50%Total goals odd · fair 2.01did not happen
Even number of goals50%Total goals even · fair 1.99✓ happened
Goals and both teams scoring
3+ goals, both teams score48%Over 2.5 + both teams to score: yes · fair 2.08✓ happened
2 goals or fewer, not both teams score32%Under 2.5 + both teams to score: no · fair 3.16did not happen
Who leads at half-time?
Sweden lead at half-time37%Half-time result: Sweden · fair 2.64did not happen
Level at half-time39%Half-time result: draw · fair 2.58✓ happened
Poland lead at half-time24%fair 4.20
How many goals in the first half?
No goals in the first half28%fair 3.58
At least one goal in the first half72%First half goals over 0.5 · fair 1.42✓ happened
At most 1 goal in the first half61%First half goals under 1.5 · fair 1.63did not happen
2+ goals in the first half39%First half goals over 1.5 · fair 2.58✓ happened
2 goals or fewer in the first half85%First half goals under 2.5 · fair 1.18✓ happened
3+ goals in the first half15%fair 6.68
Do both teams score in the first half?
Both teams score in the first half23%fair 4.34
Not both teams score in the first half77%First half, both teams to score: no · fair 1.30did not happen
Who wins the second half?
Sweden win the second half40%Second half result: Sweden · fair 2.50✓ happened
Second half drawn34%Second half result: draw · fair 2.93did not happen
Poland win the second half26%fair 3.88
Which half has more goals?
More goals in the first half31%Higher-scoring half: first · fair 3.25did not happen
Same number of goals in each half24%fair 4.17
More goals in the second half45%Higher-scoring half: second · fair 2.21did not happen
Do Sweden win at least one half?
Sweden win at least one half62%Sweden win either half: yes · fair 1.61✓ happened
Sweden win neither half38%Sweden win either half: no · fair 2.63did not happen
Do Poland win at least one half?
Poland win at least one half44%Poland win either half: yes · fair 2.29did not happen
Poland win neither half56%Poland win either half: no · fair 1.78✓ happened
Do Sweden win both halves?
Sweden win both halves15%fair 6.82
Sweden don’t win both halves85%Sweden win both halves: no · fair 1.17✓ happened
Half-time and full-time result
Sweden lead at half-time, Sweden win the match30%Half-time/full-time: Sweden / Sweden · fair 3.29did not happen
How many corners do Sweden have?
Sweden have 4 corners or fewer44%Sweden corners under 4.5 · fair 2.25✓ happened
Sweden have 5+ corners56%Sweden corners over 4.5 · fair 1.80did not happen
How many corners do Poland have?
Poland have 3 corners or fewer47%Poland corners under 3.5 · fair 2.11did not happen
Poland have 4+ corners53%Poland corners over 3.5 · fair 1.90✓ happened
Poland have 4 corners or fewer58%Poland corners under 4.5 · fair 1.73✓ happened
Poland have 5+ corners42%Poland corners over 4.5 · fair 2.36did not happen
How many cards in the match?
2 cards or fewer in the match29%fair 3.48
3+ cards in the match71%Total cards over 2.5 · fair 1.40✓ happened
3 cards or fewer in the match44%Total cards under 3.5 · fair 2.26did not happen
4+ cards in the match56%Total cards over 3.5 · fair 1.79✓ happened
4 cards or fewer in the match63%Total cards under 4.5 · fair 1.58✓ happened
5+ cards in the match37%Total cards over 4.5 · fair 2.74did not happen