How did our suggestions turn out?
SolidHit
Northern Ireland don’t win without concedingNorthern Ireland win to nil: no78%we said so
Score 0–0
Most likelyMissed
2+ goals in the matchTotal goals over 1.564%we said so
0 goals in the match
SurpriseHit
DrawMatch result: draw33%we said so
Score 0-0
5 of 6 suggestions hit
Other strong options:Hungary don’t win without conceding77%At most 1 goal in the first half75%Northern Ireland score at most 1 goal72%
Who wins? · pre-match
32%Northern Ireland33%Draw35%Hungary
Result: a drawHow many goals?expected 2.1 · actual 0
012345+
2 goals or fewer 65% · 3 or more 35%Likeliest scores
1–115%0–013%0–112%
The match ended 0–0; before kick-off we gave this score 13%.Why did our pick miss?
We said “2+ goals in the match”; the match had 0 goals, and we expected 2.1.
Expectation and actual
ExpectedActual
Goals2.10Close
Cards4.46Hit
Corners9.25Close
Scenario that happened“Draw, 2 goals or fewer” (before the match 28%, the 1st likeliest scenario).
How did the match go?
The chances we gave before the match; the one with the green frame happened.
Northern Ireland win 32%Draw 33%Hungary win 35%3+ goals3 or more goals · 35%2 goals or fewer2 goals or fewer · 65%
The chances we gave before the match; the green ones happened.
Who wins?
Northern Ireland win32%Match result: Northern Ireland · fair 3.11did not happen
Draw33%Match result: draw · fair 3.05✓ happened
Hungary win35%Match result: Hungary · fair 2.85did not happen
Who avoids defeat?
Northern Ireland avoid defeat65%Double chance: Northern Ireland or draw · fair 1.54✓ happened
Hungary avoid defeat68%Double chance: draw or Hungary · fair 1.47✓ happened
No draw67%Double chance: Northern Ireland or Hungary · fair 1.49did not happen
Do Northern Ireland win without conceding?
Northern Ireland win without conceding22%fair 4.64
Northern Ireland don’t win without conceding78%Northern Ireland win to nil: no · fair 1.27✓ happened
Do Hungary win without conceding?
Hungary win without conceding23%fair 4.26
Hungary don’t win without conceding77%Hungary win to nil: no · fair 1.31✓ happened
Result and goals together
Northern Ireland win, 3 goals or fewer30%Northern Ireland + under 3.5 · fair 3.31did not happen
Hungary win, 3 goals or fewer30%Hungary + under 3.5 · fair 3.32did not happen
By how many goals?
Hungary avoid defeat66%Handicap (Northern Ireland -1): Hungary · fair 1.51✓ happened
Northern Ireland avoid defeat63%Handicap (Northern Ireland +1): Northern Ireland · fair 1.58✓ happened
How many goals in the match?
At most 1 goal in the match36%Total goals under 1.5 · fair 2.79✓ happened
2+ goals in the match64%Total goals over 1.5 · fair 1.56did not happen
2 goals or fewer in the match64%Total goals under 2.5 · fair 1.58✓ happened
3+ goals in the match36%Total goals over 2.5 · fair 2.72did not happen
3 goals or fewer in the match82%Total goals under 3.5 · fair 1.23✓ happened
4+ goals in the match18%fair 5.61
Do both teams score?
Both teams score43%Both teams to score: yes · fair 2.31did not happen
Not both teams score57%Both teams to score: no · fair 1.76✓ happened
How many goals do Northern Ireland score?
Northern Ireland fail to score35%Northern Ireland goals under 0.5 · fair 2.90✓ happened
Northern Ireland score65%Northern Ireland goals over 0.5 · fair 1.52did not happen
Northern Ireland score at most 1 goal72%Northern Ireland goals under 1.5 · fair 1.39✓ happened
Northern Ireland score 2+ goals30%Northern Ireland goals over 1.5 · fair 3.56did not happen
How many goals do Hungary score?
Hungary fail to score33%Hungary goals under 0.5 · fair 3.09✓ happened
Hungary score67%Hungary goals over 0.5 · fair 1.48did not happen
Hungary score at most 1 goal70%Hungary goals under 1.5 · fair 1.43✓ happened
Hungary score 2+ goals30%Hungary goals over 1.5 · fair 3.31did not happen
Which range do the goals fall in?
2–3 goals in the match46%Total goals 2-3 · fair 2.17did not happen
0–1 goals in the match37%Total goals 0-1 · fair 2.71✓ happened
Odd or even number of goals?
Odd number of goals49%Total goals odd · fair 2.03did not happen
Even number of goals51%Total goals even · fair 1.98✓ happened
Goals and both teams scoring
2 goals or fewer, not both teams score50%Under 2.5 + both teams to score: no · fair 1.99✓ happened
3+ goals, both teams score30%Over 2.5 + both teams to score: yes · fair 3.29did not happen
Who leads at half-time?
Level at half-time48%Half-time result: draw · fair 2.09✓ happened
How many goals in the first half?
No goals in the first half39%First half goals under 0.5 · fair 2.58✓ happened
At least one goal in the first half61%First half goals over 0.5 · fair 1.63did not happen
At most 1 goal in the first half75%First half goals under 1.5 · fair 1.33✓ happened
2+ goals in the first half25%fair 4.04
Who wins the second half?
Northern Ireland win the second half30%Second half result: Northern Ireland · fair 3.30did not happen
Second half drawn42%Second half result: draw · fair 2.37✓ happened
Hungary win the second half30%Second half result: Hungary · fair 3.30did not happen
Which half has more goals?
More goals in the second half41%Higher-scoring half: second · fair 2.42did not happen
Do Northern Ireland win at least one half?
Northern Ireland win at least one half46%Northern Ireland win either half: yes · fair 2.17did not happen
Northern Ireland win neither half54%Northern Ireland win either half: no · fair 1.86✓ happened
Do Hungary win at least one half?
Hungary win at least one half49%Hungary win either half: yes · fair 2.05did not happen
Hungary win neither half51%Hungary win either half: no · fair 1.95✓ happened
How many corners do Northern Ireland have?
Northern Ireland have 3 corners or fewer44%Northern Ireland corners under 3.5 · fair 2.30✓ happened
Northern Ireland have 4+ corners56%Northern Ireland corners over 3.5 · fair 1.77did not happen
Northern Ireland have 4 corners or fewer54%Northern Ireland corners under 4.5 · fair 1.85✓ happened
Northern Ireland have 5+ corners46%Northern Ireland corners over 4.5 · fair 2.18did not happen
How many corners do Hungary have?
Hungary have 4 corners or fewer54%Hungary corners under 4.5 · fair 1.85✓ happened
Hungary have 5+ corners46%Hungary corners over 4.5 · fair 2.18did not happen
How many cards in the match?
3 cards or fewer in the match38%Total cards under 3.5 · fair 2.65did not happen
4+ cards in the match62%Total cards over 3.5 · fair 1.61✓ happened
4 cards or fewer in the match56%Total cards under 4.5 · fair 1.79did not happen
5+ cards in the match44%Total cards over 4.5 · fair 2.27✓ happened
5 cards or fewer in the match71%Total cards under 5.5 · fair 1.40did not happen
6+ cards in the match29%fair 3.49