How did our suggestions turn out?
SolidHit
Estonia score at most 1 goalEstonia goals under 1.585%we said so
Estonia: 1 goal
Most likelyHit
3 goals or fewer in the matchTotal goals under 3.563%we said so
2 goals in the match
SurpriseMissed
Iceland score 3+ goalsIceland goals over 2.543%we said so
Iceland: 1 goal
2 of 5 suggestions hit
Other strong options:Iceland win75%Not both teams score56%
Who wins? · pre-match
76%Iceland16%Draw9%Estonia
Result: a drawHow many goals?expected 3.1 · actual 2
012345+
2 goals or fewer 41% · 3 or more 59%Likeliest scores
2–013%1–011%3–011%
The match ended 1–1; before kick-off we gave this score 8%.Expectation and actual
ExpectedActual
Goals3.12Hit
Corners9.110Hit
Scenario that happened“Draw, 2 goals or fewer” (before the match 12%, the 3rd likeliest scenario). The likeliest scenario, “Iceland win, 3+ goals” (51%), did not happen.
How did the match go?
The chances we gave before the match; the one with the green frame happened.
Iceland win 76%Draw 16%Estonia win 9%3+ goals3 or more goals · 59%2 goals or fewer2 goals or fewer · 41%
The chances we gave before the match; the green ones happened.
Who wins?
Iceland win75%Match result: Iceland · fair 1.33did not happen
Draw16%fair 6.33
Estonia win9%fair 11.63
Who avoids defeat?
Iceland avoid defeat91%fair 1.09
Estonia avoid defeat24%fair 4.10
No draw84%Double chance: Iceland or Estonia · fair 1.19did not happen
How many goals in the match?
At most 1 goal in the match20%fair 5.10
2+ goals in the match80%Total goals over 1.5 · fair 1.25✓ happened
2 goals or fewer in the match41%Total goals under 2.5 · fair 2.44✓ happened
3+ goals in the match59%Total goals over 2.5 · fair 1.70did not happen
3 goals or fewer in the match63%Total goals under 3.5 · fair 1.58✓ happened
4+ goals in the match37%Total goals over 3.5 · fair 2.71did not happen
4 goals or fewer in the match80%Total goals under 4.5 · fair 1.25✓ happened
5+ goals in the match20%fair 5.05
Do both teams score?
Both teams score44%Both teams to score: yes · fair 2.27✓ happened
Not both teams score56%Both teams to score: no · fair 1.78did not happen
How many goals do Iceland score?
Iceland score at most 1 goal31%Iceland goals under 1.5 · fair 3.30✓ happened
Iceland score 2+ goals69%Iceland goals over 1.5 · fair 1.44did not happen
Iceland score 2 goals or fewer57%Iceland goals under 2.5 · fair 1.75✓ happened
Iceland score 3+ goals43%Iceland goals over 2.5 · fair 2.33did not happen
How many goals do Estonia score?
Estonia fail to score51%Estonia goals under 0.5 · fair 1.93did not happen
Estonia score49%Estonia goals over 0.5 · fair 2.08✓ happened
Estonia score at most 1 goal85%Estonia goals under 1.5 · fair 1.17✓ happened
Estonia score 2+ goals15%fair 6.79
How many corners do Iceland have?
Iceland have 5 corners or fewer46%Iceland corners under 5.5 · fair 2.17did not happen
Iceland have 6+ corners54%Iceland corners over 5.5 · fair 1.85✓ happened
How many corners do Estonia have?
Estonia have 2 corners or fewer47%Estonia corners under 2.5 · fair 2.14did not happen
Estonia have 3+ corners53%Estonia corners over 2.5 · fair 1.88✓ happened