How did our suggestions turn out?
SolidMissed
2+ goals in the matchTotal goals over 1.583%we said so
1 goal in the match
Most likelyHit
At most 1 goal in the first halfFirst half goals under 1.559%we said so
Score 0–1
SurpriseMissed
Germany win, 3+ goalsGermany + over 2.547%we said so
Score 0–1
3 of 6 suggestions hit
Other strong options:No draw80%Not both teams score in the first half78%Germany win at least one half77%
Who wins? · pre-match
66%Germany20%Draw14%Greece
Result: Greece wonHow many goals?expected 3.2 · actual 1
012345+
2 goals or fewer 39% · 3 or more 61%Likeliest scores
2–010%2–110%1–19%
The match ended 0–1; before kick-off we gave this score 4%.Expectation and actual
ExpectedActual
Goals3.21Close
Cards4.05Hit
Corners9.310Hit
Scenario that happened“Greece win, 2 goals or fewer” (before the match 5%, the 6th likeliest scenario). The likeliest scenario, “Germany win, 3+ goals” (47%), did not happen.
How did the match go?
The chances we gave before the match; the one with the green frame happened.
Germany win 66%Draw 20%Greece win 14%3+ goals3 or more goals · 61%2 goals or fewer2 goals or fewer · 39%
The chances we gave before the match; the green ones happened.
Who wins?
Germany win66%Match result: Germany · fair 1.52did not happen
Draw20%fair 4.97
Greece win14%fair 7.18
Who avoids defeat?
Germany avoid defeat86%fair 1.16
Greece avoid defeat34%Double chance: draw or Greece · fair 2.94✓ happened
No draw80%Double chance: Germany or Greece · fair 1.25✓ happened
Do Germany win without conceding?
Germany win without conceding35%Germany win to nil: yes · fair 2.90did not happen
Germany don’t win without conceding65%Germany win to nil: no · fair 1.53✓ happened
Result and goals together
Germany win, 2+ goals57%Germany + over 1.5 · fair 1.75did not happen
Germany win, 3+ goals47%Germany + over 2.5 · fair 2.13did not happen
Germany win, 3 goals or fewer37%Germany + under 3.5 · fair 2.70did not happen
Germany win, 4+ goals33%Germany + over 3.5 · fair 3.04did not happen
Germany win, not both teams score35%Germany + both teams to score: no · fair 2.90did not happen
Germany win, both teams score32%Germany + both teams to score: yes · fair 3.13did not happen
By how many goals?
Germany don’t win by 2+ goals57%Handicap (Germany -2): Greece · fair 1.76✓ happened
Germany win by 2+ goals43%Handicap (Germany -1): Germany · fair 2.31did not happen
Greece avoid defeat34%Handicap (Germany -1): Greece · fair 2.98✓ happened
How many goals in the match?
At most 1 goal in the match17%fair 5.79
2+ goals in the match83%Total goals over 1.5 · fair 1.21did not happen
2 goals or fewer in the match38%Total goals under 2.5 · fair 2.62✓ happened
3+ goals in the match62%Total goals over 2.5 · fair 1.62did not happen
3 goals or fewer in the match60%Total goals under 3.5 · fair 1.67✓ happened
4+ goals in the match40%Total goals over 3.5 · fair 2.48did not happen
4 goals or fewer in the match78%Total goals under 4.5 · fair 1.28✓ happened
5+ goals in the match22%fair 4.60
Do both teams score?
Both teams score55%Both teams to score: yes · fair 1.82did not happen
Not both teams score45%Both teams to score: no · fair 2.21✓ happened
How many goals do Germany score?
Germany score at most 1 goal34%Germany goals under 1.5 · fair 2.97✓ happened
Germany score 2+ goals66%Germany goals over 1.5 · fair 1.51did not happen
Germany score 2 goals or fewer61%Germany goals under 2.5 · fair 1.64✓ happened
Germany score 3+ goals39%Germany goals over 2.5 · fair 2.57did not happen
How many goals do Greece score?
Greece fail to score38%Greece goals under 0.5 · fair 2.61did not happen
Greece score62%Greece goals over 0.5 · fair 1.62✓ happened
Greece score at most 1 goal75%Greece goals under 1.5 · fair 1.34✓ happened
Greece score 2+ goals25%fair 4.00
Which range do the goals fall in?
2–3 goals in the match43%Total goals 2-3 · fair 2.31did not happen
4–5 goals in the match31%Total goals 4-5 · fair 3.21did not happen
Odd or even number of goals?
Odd number of goals50%Total goals odd · fair 2.00✓ happened
Even number of goals50%Total goals even · fair 2.00did not happen
Goals and both teams scoring
3+ goals, both teams score46%Over 2.5 + both teams to score: yes · fair 2.17did not happen
Who leads at half-time?
Germany lead at half-time49%Half-time result: Germany · fair 2.03did not happen
Level at half-time35%Half-time result: draw · fair 2.82✓ happened
Greece lead at half-time15%fair 6.51
How many goals in the first half?
No goals in the first half24%fair 4.13
At least one goal in the first half76%First half goals over 0.5 · fair 1.32did not happen
At most 1 goal in the first half59%First half goals under 1.5 · fair 1.70✓ happened
2+ goals in the first half41%First half goals over 1.5 · fair 2.44did not happen
2 goals or fewer in the first half83%First half goals under 2.5 · fair 1.21✓ happened
3+ goals in the first half17%fair 5.85
Do both teams score in the first half?
Both teams score in the first half22%fair 4.60
Not both teams score in the first half78%First half, both teams to score: no · fair 1.28✓ happened
Who wins the second half?
Germany win the second half54%Second half result: Germany · fair 1.85did not happen
Second half drawn30%Second half result: draw · fair 3.31did not happen
Greece win the second half16%fair 6.34
Which half has more goals?
More goals in the first half31%Higher-scoring half: first · fair 3.23did not happen
Same number of goals in each half23%fair 4.33
More goals in the second half46%Higher-scoring half: second · fair 2.18✓ happened
Do Germany win at least one half?
Germany win at least one half77%Germany win either half: yes · fair 1.31did not happen
Germany win neither half23%fair 4.27
Do Greece win at least one half?
Greece win at least one half29%fair 3.48
Greece win neither half71%Greece win either half: no · fair 1.40did not happen
Do Germany win both halves?
Germany win both halves26%fair 3.77
Germany don’t win both halves74%Germany win both halves: no · fair 1.36✓ happened
Half-time and full-time result
Germany lead at half-time, Germany win the match44%Half-time/full-time: Germany / Germany · fair 2.28did not happen
How many corners do Germany have?
Germany have 5 corners or fewer45%Germany corners under 5.5 · fair 2.23did not happen
Germany have 6+ corners55%Germany corners over 5.5 · fair 1.81✓ happened
How many corners do Greece have?
Greece have 3 corners or fewer57%Greece corners under 3.5 · fair 1.75✓ happened
Greece have 4+ corners43%Greece corners over 3.5 · fair 2.34did not happen
How many cards in the match?
2 cards or fewer in the match31%Total cards under 2.5 · fair 3.72did not happen
3+ cards in the match73%Total cards over 2.5 · fair 1.37✓ happened
3 cards or fewer in the match45%Total cards under 3.5 · fair 2.20did not happen
4+ cards in the match55%Total cards over 3.5 · fair 1.83✓ happened
4 cards or fewer in the match63%Total cards under 4.5 · fair 1.59did not happen
5+ cards in the match37%Total cards over 4.5 · fair 2.68✓ happened
How many shots on target in the match?
8 shots on target or fewer in the match44%fair 2.25
9+ shots on target in the match56%Total shots on target over 8.5 · fair 1.80did not happen
9 shots on target or fewer in the match55%fair 1.80
10+ shots on target in the match45%Total shots on target over 9.5 · fair 2.24did not happen
10 shots on target or fewer in the match66%fair 1.52
11+ shots on target in the match34%Total shots on target over 10.5 · fair 2.92did not happen
How many shots on target do Germany have?
Germany have 5 shots on target or fewer43%fair 2.33
Germany have 6+ shots on target57%Germany shots on target over 5.5 · fair 1.75did not happen
Germany have 6 shots on target or fewer56%fair 1.80
Germany have 7+ shots on target44%Germany shots on target over 6.5 · fair 2.26did not happen
Germany have 7 shots on target or fewer67%fair 1.49
Germany have 8+ shots on target33%Germany shots on target over 7.5 · fair 3.06did not happen
How many shots on target do Greece have?
Greece have 2 shots on target or fewer47%fair 2.15
Greece have 3+ shots on target53%Greece shots on target over 2.5 · fair 1.87did not happen
Greece have 3 shots on target or fewer65%fair 1.54
Greece have 4+ shots on target35%Greece shots on target over 3.5 · fair 2.86did not happen
How many shots in the match?
25 shots or fewer in the match42%fair 2.37
26+ shots in the match58%Total shots over 25.5 · fair 1.73did not happen
27 shots or fewer in the match53%fair 1.87
28+ shots in the match47%Total shots over 27.5 · fair 2.15did not happen
29 shots or fewer in the match65%fair 1.55
30+ shots in the match35%Total shots over 29.5 · fair 2.82did not happen
How many shots do Germany have?
Germany have 15 shots or fewer44%fair 2.25
Germany have 16+ shots56%Germany shots over 15.5 · fair 1.80✓ happened
Germany have 17 shots or fewer58%fair 1.71
Germany have 18+ shots42%Germany shots over 17.5 · fair 2.40did not happen
How many shots do Greece have?
Greece have 9 shots or fewer46%fair 2.20
Greece have 10+ shots54%Greece shots over 9.5 · fair 1.84did not happen
Greece have 11 shots or fewer63%fair 1.59
Greece have 12+ shots37%Greece shots over 11.5 · fair 2.70did not happen