How did our suggestions turn out?
SolidMissed
2 goals or fewer in the first halfFirst half goals under 2.585%we said so
Score 1–4
Most likelyMissed
3 goals or fewer in the matchTotal goals under 3.563%we said so
5 goals in the match
SurpriseHit
Italy win, 2+ goalsItaly + over 1.531%we said so
Score 1–4
3 of 6 suggestions hit
Other strong options:Italy score 2 goals or fewer79%Türkiye score78%Not both teams score in the first half76%
Who wins? · pre-match
35%Türkiye27%Draw37%Italy
Result: Italy wonHow many goals?expected 3.0 · actual 5
012345+
2 goals or fewer 42% · 3 or more 58%Likeliest scores
1–112%1–28%2–18%
The match ended 1–4; before kick-off we gave this score 2%.Why did our pick miss?
We said “3 goals or fewer in the match”; the match had 5 goals, and we expected 3.0.
Expectation and actual
ExpectedActual
Goals3.05Close
Cards4.53Hit
Corners9.48Hit
Scenario that happened“Italy win, 3+ goals” (before the match 25%, the 1st likeliest scenario).
How did the match go?
The chances we gave before the match; the one with the green frame happened.
Türkiye win 35%Draw 27%Italy win 37%3+ goals3 or more goals · 58%2 goals or fewer2 goals or fewer · 42%
The chances we gave before the match; the green ones happened.
Who wins?
Türkiye win35%Match result: Türkiye · fair 2.82did not happen
Draw27%fair 3.69
Italy win37%Match result: Italy · fair 2.67✓ happened
Who avoids defeat?
Türkiye avoid defeat63%Double chance: Türkiye or draw · fair 1.60did not happen
Italy avoid defeat65%Double chance: draw or Italy · fair 1.55✓ happened
No draw73%Double chance: Türkiye or Italy · fair 1.37✓ happened
Result and goals together
Italy win, 2+ goals31%Italy + over 1.5 · fair 3.18✓ happened
By how many goals?
Türkiye don’t win by 2+ goals82%Handicap (Türkiye -2): Italy · fair 1.22✓ happened
Italy don’t win by 2+ goals81%Handicap (Türkiye +2): Türkiye · fair 1.23did not happen
Italy avoid defeat63%Handicap (Türkiye -1): Italy · fair 1.59✓ happened
Türkiye avoid defeat61%Handicap (Türkiye +1): Türkiye · fair 1.64did not happen
How many goals in the match?
At most 1 goal in the match23%fair 4.39
2+ goals in the match77%Total goals over 1.5 · fair 1.36✓ happened
2 goals or fewer in the match41%Total goals under 2.5 · fair 2.43did not happen
3+ goals in the match59%Total goals over 2.5 · fair 1.70✓ happened
3 goals or fewer in the match63%Total goals under 3.5 · fair 1.61did not happen
4+ goals in the match37%Total goals over 3.5 · fair 2.65✓ happened
4 goals or fewer in the match81%Total goals under 4.5 · fair 1.24did not happen
5+ goals in the match19%fair 5.24
Do both teams score?
Both teams score61%Both teams to score: yes · fair 1.64✓ happened
Not both teams score39%Both teams to score: no · fair 2.56did not happen
How many goals do Türkiye score?
Türkiye fail to score22%fair 4.51
Türkiye score78%Türkiye goals over 0.5 · fair 1.28✓ happened
Türkiye score at most 1 goal56%Türkiye goals under 1.5 · fair 1.80✓ happened
Türkiye score 2+ goals44%Türkiye goals over 1.5 · fair 2.24did not happen
Türkiye score 2 goals or fewer81%Türkiye goals under 2.5 · fair 1.23✓ happened
Türkiye score 3+ goals19%fair 5.26
How many goals do Italy score?
Italy fail to score21%fair 4.72
Italy score79%Italy goals over 0.5 · fair 1.26✓ happened
Italy score at most 1 goal54%Italy goals under 1.5 · fair 1.86did not happen
Italy score 2+ goals46%Italy goals over 1.5 · fair 2.17✓ happened
Italy score 2 goals or fewer79%Italy goals under 2.5 · fair 1.27did not happen
Italy score 3+ goals21%fair 4.80
Which range do the goals fall in?
2–3 goals in the match45%Total goals 2-3 · fair 2.25did not happen
Odd or even number of goals?
Odd number of goals50%Total goals odd · fair 2.01✓ happened
Even number of goals50%Total goals even · fair 1.99did not happen
Goals and both teams scoring
3+ goals, both teams score50%Over 2.5 + both teams to score: yes · fair 2.00✓ happened
2 goals or fewer, not both teams score30%Under 2.5 + both teams to score: no · fair 3.28did not happen
Who leads at half-time?
Türkiye lead at half-time30%fair 3.35
Level at half-time39%Half-time result: draw · fair 2.56did not happen
Italy lead at half-time31%Half-time result: Italy · fair 3.22✓ happened
How many goals in the first half?
No goals in the first half27%fair 3.66
At least one goal in the first half73%First half goals over 0.5 · fair 1.40✓ happened
At most 1 goal in the first half61%First half goals under 1.5 · fair 1.65did not happen
2+ goals in the first half39%First half goals over 1.5 · fair 2.54✓ happened
2 goals or fewer in the first half85%First half goals under 2.5 · fair 1.18did not happen
3+ goals in the first half15%fair 6.46
Do both teams score in the first half?
Both teams score in the first half24%fair 4.15
Not both teams score in the first half76%First half, both teams to score: no · fair 1.32✓ happened
Who wins the second half?
Türkiye win the second half32%Second half result: Türkiye · fair 3.10did not happen
Second half drawn34%Second half result: draw · fair 2.92✓ happened
Italy win the second half34%Second half result: Italy · fair 2.98did not happen
Which half has more goals?
More goals in the first half31%Higher-scoring half: first · fair 3.24✓ happened
Same number of goals in each half24%fair 4.21
More goals in the second half45%Higher-scoring half: second · fair 2.20did not happen
Do Türkiye win at least one half?
Türkiye win at least one half52%Türkiye win either half: yes · fair 1.91did not happen
Türkiye win neither half48%Türkiye win either half: no · fair 2.10✓ happened
Do Italy win at least one half?
Italy win at least one half54%Italy win either half: yes · fair 1.85✓ happened
Italy win neither half46%Italy win either half: no · fair 2.18did not happen
How many corners do Türkiye have?
Türkiye have 4 corners or fewer47%Türkiye corners under 4.5 · fair 2.11did not happen
Türkiye have 5+ corners53%Türkiye corners over 4.5 · fair 1.90✓ happened
How many corners do Italy have?
Italy have 3 corners or fewer44%Italy corners under 3.5 · fair 2.27✓ happened
Italy have 4+ corners56%Italy corners over 3.5 · fair 1.79did not happen
Italy have 4 corners or fewer55%Italy corners under 4.5 · fair 1.83✓ happened
Italy have 5+ corners45%Italy corners over 4.5 · fair 2.21did not happen
How many cards in the match?
3 cards or fewer in the match37%Total cards under 3.5 · fair 2.74✓ happened
4+ cards in the match63%Total cards over 3.5 · fair 1.58did not happen
4 cards or fewer in the match55%Total cards under 4.5 · fair 1.82✓ happened
5+ cards in the match45%Total cards over 4.5 · fair 2.22did not happen
5 cards or fewer in the match68%Total cards under 5.5 · fair 1.46✓ happened
6+ cards in the match32%Total cards over 5.5 · fair 3.16did not happen