How did our suggestions turn out?
SolidHit
Belgium score 2 goals or fewerBelgium goals under 2.587%we said so
Belgium: 0 goals
Most likelyHit
France win at least one halfFrance win either half: yes65%we said so
Score 0–1
SurpriseMissed
France win, 3+ goalsFrance + over 2.536%we said so
Score 0–1
5 of 6 suggestions hit
Other strong options:4 goals or fewer in the match80%Not both teams score in the first half76%France avoid defeat76%
Who wins? · pre-match
24%Belgium25%Draw51%France
Result: France wonHow many goals?expected 3.1 · actual 1
012345+
2 goals or fewer 41% · 3 or more 59%Likeliest scores
1–111%1–29%0–18%
The match ended 0–1; before kick-off we gave this score 8%.Expectation and actual
ExpectedActual
Goals3.11Close
Cards4.13Hit
Corners9.48Hit
Scenario that happened“France win, 2 goals or fewer” (before the match 16%, the 3rd likeliest scenario). The likeliest scenario, “France win, 3+ goals” (35%), did not happen.
How did the match go?
The chances we gave before the match; the one with the green frame happened.
Belgium win 24%Draw 25%France win 51%3+ goals3 or more goals · 59%2 goals or fewer2 goals or fewer · 41%
The chances we gave before the match; the green ones happened.
Who wins?
Belgium win24%fair 4.13
Draw25%fair 4.01
France win51%Match result: France · fair 1.97✓ happened
Who avoids defeat?
Belgium avoid defeat49%Double chance: Belgium or draw · fair 2.04did not happen
France avoid defeat76%Double chance: draw or France · fair 1.32✓ happened
No draw75%Double chance: Belgium or France · fair 1.33✓ happened
Do France win without conceding?
France win without conceding24%fair 4.11
France don’t win without conceding76%France win to nil: no · fair 1.32did not happen
Result and goals together
France win, 2+ goals44%France + over 1.5 · fair 2.29did not happen
France win, 3+ goals36%France + over 2.5 · fair 2.79did not happen
France win, 3 goals or fewer31%France + under 3.5 · fair 3.27✓ happened
By how many goals?
France avoid defeat75%Handicap (Belgium -1): France · fair 1.34✓ happened
France don’t win by 2+ goals71%Handicap (Belgium +2): Belgium · fair 1.42✓ happened
Belgium avoid defeat48%Handicap (Belgium +1): Belgium · fair 2.08did not happen
How many goals in the match?
At most 1 goal in the match18%fair 5.45
2+ goals in the match82%Total goals over 1.5 · fair 1.22did not happen
2 goals or fewer in the match40%Total goals under 2.5 · fair 2.52✓ happened
3+ goals in the match60%Total goals over 2.5 · fair 1.66did not happen
3 goals or fewer in the match61%Total goals under 3.5 · fair 1.65✓ happened
4+ goals in the match39%Total goals over 3.5 · fair 2.54did not happen
4 goals or fewer in the match80%Total goals under 4.5 · fair 1.26✓ happened
5+ goals in the match20%fair 4.92
Do both teams score?
Both teams score60%Both teams to score: yes · fair 1.66did not happen
Not both teams score40%Both teams to score: no · fair 2.51✓ happened
How many goals do Belgium score?
Belgium fail to score29%fair 3.49
Belgium score71%Belgium goals over 0.5 · fair 1.40did not happen
Belgium score at most 1 goal64%Belgium goals under 1.5 · fair 1.56✓ happened
Belgium score 2+ goals36%Belgium goals over 1.5 · fair 2.78did not happen
Belgium score 2 goals or fewer87%Belgium goals under 2.5 · fair 1.15✓ happened
Belgium score 3+ goals13%fair 7.67
How many goals do France score?
France fail to score15%fair 6.45
France score85%France goals over 0.5 · fair 1.18✓ happened
France score at most 1 goal44%France goals under 1.5 · fair 2.29✓ happened
France score 2+ goals56%France goals over 1.5 · fair 1.77did not happen
France score 2 goals or fewer71%France goals under 2.5 · fair 1.42✓ happened
France score 3+ goals30%France goals over 2.5 · fair 3.36did not happen
Which range do the goals fall in?
2–3 goals in the match44%Total goals 2-3 · fair 2.28did not happen
Odd or even number of goals?
Odd number of goals50%Total goals odd · fair 2.00✓ happened
Even number of goals50%Total goals even · fair 2.00did not happen
Goals and both teams scoring
3+ goals, both teams score50%Over 2.5 + both teams to score: yes · fair 2.01did not happen
Who leads at half-time?
Belgium lead at half-time23%fair 4.35
Level at half-time38%Half-time result: draw · fair 2.64✓ happened
France lead at half-time39%Half-time result: France · fair 2.58did not happen
How many goals in the first half?
No goals in the first half25%fair 3.99
At least one goal in the first half75%First half goals over 0.5 · fair 1.33did not happen
At most 1 goal in the first half60%First half goals under 1.5 · fair 1.68✓ happened
2+ goals in the first half40%First half goals over 1.5 · fair 2.47did not happen
2 goals or fewer in the first half84%First half goals under 2.5 · fair 1.19✓ happened
3+ goals in the first half16%fair 6.15
Do both teams score in the first half?
Both teams score in the first half24%fair 4.17
Not both teams score in the first half76%First half, both teams to score: no · fair 1.32✓ happened
Who wins the second half?
Belgium win the second half24%fair 4.17
Second half drawn33%Second half result: draw · fair 3.03did not happen
France win the second half43%Second half result: France · fair 2.33✓ happened
Which half has more goals?
More goals in the first half31%Higher-scoring half: first · fair 3.24did not happen
Same number of goals in each half23%fair 4.26
More goals in the second half46%Higher-scoring half: second · fair 2.19✓ happened
Do Belgium win at least one half?
Belgium win at least one half41%Belgium win either half: yes · fair 2.42did not happen
Belgium win neither half59%Belgium win either half: no · fair 1.70✓ happened
Do France win at least one half?
France win at least one half65%France win either half: yes · fair 1.53✓ happened
France win neither half35%France win either half: no · fair 2.89did not happen
Do France win both halves?
France win both halves17%fair 5.92
France don’t win both halves83%France win both halves: no · fair 1.20✓ happened
Half-time and full-time result
France lead at half-time, France win the match32%Half-time/full-time: France / France · fair 3.09did not happen
How many corners do Belgium have?
Belgium have 3 corners or fewer44%Belgium corners under 3.5 · fair 2.27✓ happened
Belgium have 4+ corners56%Belgium corners over 3.5 · fair 1.79did not happen
How many corners do France have?
France have 4 corners or fewer46%France corners under 4.5 · fair 2.17did not happen
France have 5+ corners54%France corners over 4.5 · fair 1.86✓ happened
How many cards in the match?
3 cards or fewer in the match42%Total cards under 3.5 · fair 2.40✓ happened
4+ cards in the match58%Total cards over 3.5 · fair 1.71did not happen
4 cards or fewer in the match60%Total cards under 4.5 · fair 1.66✓ happened
5+ cards in the match40%Total cards over 4.5 · fair 2.52did not happen
5 cards or fewer in the match73%Total cards under 5.5 · fair 1.37✓ happened
6+ cards in the match27%fair 3.73