How did our suggestions turn out?
SolidHit
Spain don’t win both halvesSpain win both halves: no85%we said so
Score 2–3
Most likelyMissed
England score at most 1 goalEngland goals under 1.564%we said so
England: 2 goals
SurpriseHit
Spain win, 3+ goalsSpain + over 2.531%we said so
Score 2–3
3 of 6 suggestions hit
Other strong options:Not both teams score in the first half79%Spain score 2 goals or fewer77%2+ goals in the match77%
Who wins? · pre-match
30%England28%Draw42%Spain
Result: Spain wonHow many goals?expected 2.8 · actual 5
012345+
2 goals or fewer 48% · 3 or more 52%Likeliest scores
1–113%0–19%1–29%
The match ended 2–3; before kick-off we gave this score 3%.Why did our pick miss?
We said “England score at most 1 goal”; the match had 5 goals, and we expected 2.8.
Expectation and actual
ExpectedActual
Goals2.85Close
Cards4.23Hit
Corners9.29Hit
Scenario that happened“Spain win, 3+ goals” (before the match 26%, the 1st likeliest scenario).
How did the match go?
The chances we gave before the match; the one with the green frame happened.
England win 30%Draw 28%Spain win 42%3+ goals3 or more goals · 52%2 goals or fewer2 goals or fewer · 48%
The chances we gave before the match; the green ones happened.
Who wins?
England win30%fair 3.37
Draw28%fair 3.57
Spain win48%Match result: Spain · fair 2.35✓ happened
Who avoids defeat?
England avoid defeat52%Double chance: England or draw · fair 1.91did not happen
Spain avoid defeat75%Double chance: draw or Spain · fair 1.34✓ happened
No draw73%Double chance: England or Spain · fair 1.37✓ happened
Do Spain win without conceding?
Spain win without conceding25%fair 3.94
Spain don’t win without conceding75%Spain win to nil: no · fair 1.34✓ happened
Result and goals together
Spain win, 2+ goals39%Spain + over 1.5 · fair 2.58✓ happened
Spain win, 3 goals or fewer32%Spain + under 3.5 · fair 3.10did not happen
Spain win, 3+ goals31%Spain + over 2.5 · fair 3.27✓ happened
By how many goals?
Spain don’t win by 2+ goals74%Handicap (England +2): England · fair 1.35✓ happened
Spain avoid defeat73%Handicap (England -1): Spain · fair 1.37✓ happened
England avoid defeat51%Handicap (England +1): England · fair 1.95did not happen
How many goals in the match?
At most 1 goal in the match23%fair 4.34
2+ goals in the match77%Total goals over 1.5 · fair 1.30✓ happened
2 goals or fewer in the match47%Total goals under 2.5 · fair 2.18did not happen
3+ goals in the match53%Total goals over 2.5 · fair 1.85✓ happened
3 goals or fewer in the match69%Total goals under 3.5 · fair 1.49did not happen
4+ goals in the match31%Total goals over 3.5 · fair 3.04✓ happened
4 goals or fewer in the match85%Total goals under 4.5 · fair 1.18did not happen
5+ goals in the match15%fair 6.55
Do both teams score?
Both teams score55%Both teams to score: yes · fair 1.68✓ happened
Not both teams score45%Both teams to score: no · fair 2.46did not happen
How many goals do England score?
England fail to score31%England goals under 0.5 · fair 3.68did not happen
England score69%England goals over 0.5 · fair 1.37✓ happened
England score at most 1 goal64%England goals under 1.5 · fair 1.58did not happen
England score 2+ goals32%England goals over 1.5 · fair 2.72✓ happened
England score 2 goals or fewer86%England goals under 2.5 · fair 1.16✓ happened
England score 3+ goals14%fair 7.28
How many goals do Spain score?
Spain fail to score19%fair 5.19
Spain score81%Spain goals over 0.5 · fair 1.26✓ happened
Spain score at most 1 goal51%Spain goals under 1.5 · fair 1.86did not happen
Spain score 2+ goals49%Spain goals over 1.5 · fair 2.17✓ happened
Spain score 2 goals or fewer77%Spain goals under 2.5 · fair 1.27did not happen
Spain score 3+ goals23%fair 4.37
Which range do the goals fall in?
2–3 goals in the match46%Total goals 2-3 · fair 2.17did not happen
Odd or even number of goals?
Odd number of goals50%Total goals odd · fair 2.01✓ happened
Even number of goals50%Total goals even · fair 1.99did not happen
Goals and both teams scoring
3+ goals, both teams score44%Over 2.5 + both teams to score: yes · fair 2.28✓ happened
2 goals or fewer, not both teams score35%Under 2.5 + both teams to score: no · fair 2.83did not happen
Who leads at half-time?
England lead at half-time23%fair 4.37
Level at half-time41%Half-time result: draw · fair 2.46did not happen
Spain lead at half-time37%Half-time result: Spain · fair 2.74did not happen
How many goals in the first half?
No goals in the first half29%fair 3.48
At least one goal in the first half71%First half goals over 0.5 · fair 1.40✓ happened
At most 1 goal in the first half65%First half goals under 1.5 · fair 1.55did not happen
2+ goals in the first half35%First half goals over 1.5 · fair 2.82✓ happened
Do both teams score in the first half?
Both teams score in the first half21%fair 4.79
Not both teams score in the first half79%First half, both teams to score: no · fair 1.26did not happen
Who wins the second half?
England win the second half24%fair 4.09
Second half drawn35%Second half result: draw · fair 2.82did not happen
Spain win the second half40%Second half result: Spain · fair 2.49✓ happened
Which half has more goals?
More goals in the first half31%Higher-scoring half: first · fair 3.27✓ happened
Same number of goals in each half25%fair 4.01
More goals in the second half44%Higher-scoring half: second · fair 2.25did not happen
Do England win at least one half?
England win at least one half42%England win either half: yes · fair 2.40✓ happened
England win neither half58%England win either half: no · fair 1.72did not happen
Do Spain win at least one half?
Spain win at least one half62%Spain win either half: yes · fair 1.61✓ happened
Spain win neither half38%Spain win either half: no · fair 2.63did not happen
Do Spain win both halves?
Spain win both halves15%fair 6.56
Spain don’t win both halves85%Spain win both halves: no · fair 1.18✓ happened
Half-time and full-time result
Spain lead at half-time, Spain win the match30%Half-time/full-time: Spain / Spain · fair 3.29did not happen
How many corners do England have?
England have 4 corners or fewer56%England corners under 4.5 · fair 1.77did not happen
England have 5+ corners44%England corners over 4.5 · fair 2.30✓ happened
How many corners do Spain have?
Spain have 4 corners or fewer49%Spain corners under 4.5 · fair 2.02✓ happened
Spain have 5+ corners51%Spain corners over 4.5 · fair 1.98did not happen
How many cards in the match?
2 cards or fewer in the match28%fair 3.59
3+ cards in the match72%Total cards over 2.5 · fair 1.39✓ happened
3 cards or fewer in the match46%Total cards under 3.5 · fair 2.47✓ happened
4+ cards in the match54%Total cards over 3.5 · fair 1.68did not happen
4 cards or fewer in the match64%Total cards under 4.5 · fair 1.71✓ happened
5+ cards in the match36%Total cards over 4.5 · fair 2.42did not happen
How many cards do England get?
England get at most 1 card38%England cards under 1.5 · fair 2.63did not happen
England get 2+ cards62%England cards over 1.5 · fair 1.61✓ happened
How many cards do Spain get?
Spain get at most 1 card39%Spain cards under 1.5 · fair 2.56✓ happened
Spain get 2+ cards61%Spain cards over 1.5 · fair 1.64did not happen