How did our suggestions turn out?
SolidHit
Not both teams score in the first halfFirst half, both teams to score: no83%we said so
Score 0–3
Most likelyMissed
Iceland score at most 1 goalIceland goals under 1.560%we said so
Iceland: 3 goals
SurpriseHit
Iceland win, 2+ goalsIceland + over 1.532%we said so
Score 0–3
5 of 6 suggestions hit
Other strong options:3 goals or fewer in the match77%Iceland avoid defeat73%Luxembourg score at most 1 goal72%
Who wins? · pre-match
27%Luxembourg29%Draw44%Iceland
Result: Iceland wonHow many goals?expected 2.4 · actual 3
012345+
2 goals or fewer 57% · 3 or more 43%Likeliest scores
1–114%0–112%0–010%
The match ended 0–3; before kick-off we gave this score 4%.Why did our pick miss?
We said “Iceland score at most 1 goal”; the match had 3 goals, and we expected 2.4.
Expectation and actual
ExpectedActual
Goals2.43Hit
Corners9.24Close
Scenario that happened“Iceland win, 3+ goals” (before the match 23%, the 1st likeliest scenario).
How did the match go?
The chances we gave before the match; the one with the green frame happened.
Luxembourg win 27%Draw 29%Iceland win 44%3+ goals3 or more goals · 43%2 goals or fewer2 goals or fewer · 57%
The chances we gave before the match; the green ones happened.
Who wins?
Luxembourg win32%Match result: Luxembourg · fair 3.66did not happen
Draw29%fair 3.48
Iceland win44%Match result: Iceland · fair 2.28✓ happened
Who avoids defeat?
Luxembourg avoid defeat56%Double chance: Luxembourg or draw · fair 1.78did not happen
Iceland avoid defeat73%Double chance: draw or Iceland · fair 1.38✓ happened
No draw71%Double chance: Luxembourg or Iceland · fair 1.40✓ happened
Result and goals together
Iceland win, 3 goals or fewer34%Iceland + under 3.5 · fair 2.98✓ happened
Iceland win, 2+ goals32%Iceland + over 1.5 · fair 3.10✓ happened
By how many goals?
Iceland don’t win by 2+ goals79%Handicap (Luxembourg +2): Luxembourg · fair 1.27did not happen
Iceland avoid defeat72%Handicap (Luxembourg -1): Iceland · fair 1.39✓ happened
Luxembourg avoid defeat55%Handicap (Luxembourg +1): Luxembourg · fair 1.81did not happen
How many goals in the match?
At most 1 goal in the match31%Total goals under 1.5 · fair 3.25did not happen
2+ goals in the match69%Total goals over 1.5 · fair 1.45✓ happened
2 goals or fewer in the match57%Total goals under 2.5 · fair 1.76did not happen
3+ goals in the match43%Total goals over 2.5 · fair 2.31✓ happened
3 goals or fewer in the match77%Total goals under 3.5 · fair 1.31✓ happened
4+ goals in the match23%fair 4.36
Do both teams score?
Both teams score48%Both teams to score: yes · fair 2.08did not happen
Not both teams score52%Both teams to score: no · fair 1.92✓ happened
How many goals do Luxembourg score?
Luxembourg fail to score35%Luxembourg goals under 0.5 · fair 2.84✓ happened
Luxembourg score65%Luxembourg goals over 0.5 · fair 1.54did not happen
Luxembourg score at most 1 goal72%Luxembourg goals under 1.5 · fair 1.38✓ happened
Luxembourg score 2+ goals31%Luxembourg goals over 1.5 · fair 3.60did not happen
How many goals do Iceland score?
Iceland fail to score25%fair 3.95
Iceland score75%Iceland goals over 0.5 · fair 1.34✓ happened
Iceland score at most 1 goal60%Iceland goals under 1.5 · fair 1.67did not happen
Iceland score 2+ goals40%Iceland goals over 1.5 · fair 2.49✓ happened
Iceland score 2 goals or fewer84%Iceland goals under 2.5 · fair 1.19did not happen
Iceland score 3+ goals16%fair 6.25
Which range do the goals fall in?
2–3 goals in the match47%Total goals 2-3 · fair 2.13✓ happened
0–1 goals in the match31%Total goals 0-1 · fair 3.25did not happen
Goals and both teams scoring
2 goals or fewer, not both teams score44%Under 2.5 + both teams to score: no · fair 2.27did not happen
3+ goals, both teams score35%Over 2.5 + both teams to score: yes · fair 2.84did not happen
Who leads at half-time?
Luxembourg lead at half-time23%fair 4.43
Level at half-time44%Half-time result: draw · fair 2.26did not happen
Iceland lead at half-time33%Half-time result: Iceland · fair 3.01✓ happened
How many goals in the first half?
No goals in the first half34%First half goals under 0.5 · fair 2.91did not happen
At least one goal in the first half66%First half goals over 0.5 · fair 1.52✓ happened
At most 1 goal in the first half71%First half goals under 1.5 · fair 1.42did not happen
2+ goals in the first half29%fair 3.43
Do both teams score in the first half?
Both teams score in the first half17%fair 5.95
Not both teams score in the first half83%First half, both teams to score: no · fair 1.20✓ happened
Who wins the second half?
Luxembourg win the second half25%fair 4.06
Second half drawn39%Second half result: draw · fair 2.56did not happen
Iceland win the second half36%Second half result: Iceland · fair 2.76✓ happened
Which half has more goals?
More goals in the first half30%Higher-scoring half: first · fair 3.33✓ happened
Same number of goals in each half27%fair 3.67
More goals in the second half43%Higher-scoring half: second · fair 2.34did not happen
How many corners do Luxembourg have?
Luxembourg have 4 corners or fewer55%Luxembourg corners under 4.5 · fair 1.83✓ happened
Luxembourg have 5+ corners45%Luxembourg corners over 4.5 · fair 2.21did not happen
How many corners do Iceland have?
Iceland have 4 corners or fewer52%Iceland corners under 4.5 · fair 1.92✓ happened
Iceland have 5+ corners48%Iceland corners over 4.5 · fair 2.09did not happen