How did our suggestions turn out?
Most likelyMissed
4 cards or fewer in the matchTotal cards under 4.562%we said so
9 cards in the match
0 of 1 suggestions hit
Who wins? · pre-match
41%Hungary29%Draw29%Ukraine
Result: Ukraine wonHow many goals?expected 2.5 · actual 1
012345+
2 goals or fewer 55% · 3 or more 45%Likeliest scores
1–114%1–011%0–09%
The match ended 0–1; before kick-off we gave this score 9%.Why did our pick miss?
We said “4 cards or fewer in the match”; the match had 9 cards, and we expected 4.0.
Our cards pick rests on the teams’ season data; the model does not treat the importance of a match (a derby, a relegation fight) separately.
Expectation and actual
ExpectedActual
Goals2.51Hit
Cards4.09Far off
Corners9.46Close
Scenario that happened“Ukraine win, 2 goals or fewer” (before the match 14%, the 5th likeliest scenario). The likeliest scenario, “Hungary win, 3+ goals” (23%), did not happen.
How did the match go?
The chances we gave before the match; the one with the green frame happened.
Hungary win 41%Draw 29%Ukraine win 29%3+ goals3 or more goals · 45%2 goals or fewer2 goals or fewer · 55%
The chances we gave before the match; the green ones happened.
Who wins?
Hungary win41%fair 2.42
Draw29%fair 3.43
Ukraine win29%fair 3.39
Who avoids defeat?
Hungary avoid defeat71%fair 1.42
Ukraine avoid defeat59%fair 1.71
No draw71%fair 1.41
How many cards in the match?
4 cards or fewer in the match62%Total cards under 4.5 · fair 1.61did not happen
5+ cards in the match38%fair 2.63