How did our suggestions turn out?
SolidHit
2+ goals in the matchTotal goals over 1.585%we said so
5 goals in the match
Most likelyMissed
Spain don’t win both halvesSpain win both halves: no62%we said so
Score 4–1
SurpriseHit
Spain win, 4+ goalsSpain + over 3.538%we said so
Score 4–1
5 of 6 suggestions hit
Other strong options:Spain win79%At least one goal in the first half78%Spain score 2+ goals75%
Who wins? · pre-match
79%Spain13%Draw8%Croatia
Result: Spain wonHow many goals?expected 3.4 · actual 5
012345+
2 goals or fewer 34% · 3 or more 66%Likeliest scores
2–012%3–011%1–09%
The match ended 4–1; before kick-off we gave this score 5%.Why did our pick miss?
We said “Spain don’t win both halves”; the match had 5 goals, and we expected 3.4.
Expectation and actual
ExpectedActual
Goals3.45Hit
Cards3.65Hit
Corners9.28Hit
Scenario that happened“Spain win, 3+ goals” (before the match 58%, the 1st likeliest scenario).
How did the match go?
The chances we gave before the match; the one with the green frame happened.
Spain win 79%Draw 13%Croatia win 8%3+ goals3 or more goals · 66%2 goals or fewer2 goals or fewer · 34%
The chances we gave before the match; the green ones happened.
Who wins?
Spain win79%Match result: Spain · fair 1.26✓ happened
Draw13%fair 7.63
Croatia win8%fair 12.99
Who avoids defeat?
Spain avoid defeat92%fair 1.08
Croatia avoid defeat21%fair 4.81
No draw87%fair 1.15
Do Spain win without conceding?
Spain win without conceding46%Spain win to nil: yes · fair 2.17did not happen
Spain don’t win without conceding54%Spain win to nil: no · fair 1.85✓ happened
Result and goals together
Spain win, 2+ goals70%Spain + over 1.5 · fair 1.43✓ happened
Spain win, 3+ goals58%Spain + over 2.5 · fair 1.73✓ happened
Spain win, 3 goals or fewer41%Spain + under 3.5 · fair 2.45did not happen
Spain win, 4+ goals38%Spain + over 3.5 · fair 2.61✓ happened
Spain win, not both teams score46%Spain + both teams to score: no · fair 2.17did not happen
Spain win, both teams score33%Spain + both teams to score: yes · fair 3.03✓ happened
By how many goals?
Spain win by 2+ goals58%Handicap (Spain -1): Spain · fair 1.72✓ happened
Spain don’t win by 2+ goals42%Handicap (Spain -2): Croatia · fair 2.39did not happen
Spain win by 3+ goals36%Handicap (Spain -2): Spain · fair 2.76✓ happened
How many goals in the match?
At most 1 goal in the match15%fair 6.47
2+ goals in the match85%Total goals over 1.5 · fair 1.18✓ happened
2 goals or fewer in the match34%Total goals under 2.5 · fair 2.90did not happen
3+ goals in the match66%Total goals over 2.5 · fair 1.52✓ happened
3 goals or fewer in the match56%Total goals under 3.5 · fair 1.79did not happen
4+ goals in the match44%Total goals over 3.5 · fair 2.27✓ happened
4 goals or fewer in the match75%Total goals under 4.5 · fair 1.34did not happen
5+ goals in the match25%fair 3.97
Do both teams score?
Both teams score47%Both teams to score: yes · fair 2.12✓ happened
Not both teams score53%Both teams to score: no · fair 1.89did not happen
How many goals do Spain score?
Spain score at most 1 goal25%fair 4.02
Spain score 2+ goals75%Spain goals over 1.5 · fair 1.32✓ happened
Spain score 2 goals or fewer50%Spain goals under 2.5 · fair 2.02did not happen
Spain score 3+ goals50%Spain goals over 2.5 · fair 1.98✓ happened
How many goals do Croatia score?
Croatia fail to score50%Croatia goals under 0.5 · fair 1.97did not happen
Croatia score50%Croatia goals over 0.5 · fair 2.03✓ happened
Croatia score at most 1 goal84%Croatia goals under 1.5 · fair 1.19✓ happened
Croatia score 2+ goals16%fair 6.35
Which range do the goals fall in?
2–3 goals in the match41%Total goals 2-3 · fair 2.42did not happen
4–5 goals in the match31%Total goals 4-5 · fair 3.22✓ happened
Goals and both teams scoring
3+ goals, both teams score41%Over 2.5 + both teams to score: yes · fair 2.46✓ happened
Who leads at half-time?
Spain lead at half-time59%Half-time result: Spain · fair 1.71✓ happened
Level at half-time31%Half-time result: draw · fair 3.19did not happen
Croatia lead at half-time10%fair 10.13
How many goals in the first half?
No goals in the first half22%fair 4.50
At least one goal in the first half78%First half goals over 0.5 · fair 1.29✓ happened
At most 1 goal in the first half56%First half goals under 1.5 · fair 1.77did not happen
2+ goals in the first half44%First half goals over 1.5 · fair 2.31✓ happened
2 goals or fewer in the first half81%First half goals under 2.5 · fair 1.24did not happen
3+ goals in the first half19%fair 5.21
Do both teams score in the first half?
Both teams score in the first half19%fair 5.34
Not both teams score in the first half81%First half, both teams to score: no · fair 1.23did not happen
Who wins the second half?
Spain win the second half65%Second half result: Spain · fair 1.54✓ happened
Which half has more goals?
More goals in the first half31%Higher-scoring half: first · fair 3.21✓ happened
Same number of goals in each half22%fair 4.48
More goals in the second half47%Higher-scoring half: second · fair 2.15did not happen
Do Croatia win at least one half?
Croatia win at least one half18%fair 5.45
Croatia win neither half82%Croatia win either half: no · fair 1.22✓ happened
Do Spain win both halves?
Spain win both halves38%Spain win both halves: yes · fair 2.62✓ happened
Spain don’t win both halves62%Spain win both halves: no · fair 1.62did not happen
Half-time and full-time result
Spain lead at half-time, Spain win the match56%Half-time/full-time: Spain / Spain · fair 1.80✓ happened
How many corners do Spain have?
Spain have 5 corners or fewer44%Spain corners under 5.5 · fair 2.30did not happen
Spain have 6+ corners56%Spain corners over 5.5 · fair 1.77✓ happened
Spain have 6 corners or fewer55%Spain corners under 6.5 · fair 1.82✓ happened
Spain have 7+ corners45%Spain corners over 6.5 · fair 2.22did not happen
How many corners do Croatia have?
Croatia have 2 corners or fewer51%Croatia corners under 2.5 · fair 1.95✓ happened
Croatia have 3+ corners49%Croatia corners over 2.5 · fair 2.05did not happen
How many cards in the match?
2 cards or fewer in the match34%Total cards under 2.5 · fair 2.90did not happen
3+ cards in the match66%Total cards over 2.5 · fair 1.53✓ happened
3 cards or fewer in the match54%Total cards under 3.5 · fair 1.86did not happen
4+ cards in the match46%Total cards over 3.5 · fair 2.16✓ happened
4 cards or fewer in the match71%Total cards under 4.5 · fair 1.42did not happen
5+ cards in the match29%fair 3.41