How did our suggestions turn out?
SolidHit
Bulgaria don’t win both halvesBulgaria win both halves: no84%we said so
Score 0–0
Most likelyHit
2 goals or fewer in the matchTotal goals under 2.559%we said so
0 goals in the match
SurpriseMissed
Bulgaria win, 2+ goalsBulgaria + over 1.539%we said so
Score 0–0
4 of 6 suggestions hit
Other strong options:Bulgaria score 2 goals or fewer80%No draw73%At most 1 goal in the first half72%
Who wins? · pre-match
54%Bulgaria27%Draw19%Estonia
Result: a drawHow many goals?expected 2.3 · actual 0
012345+
2 goals or fewer 60% · 3 or more 40%Likeliest scores
1–015%1–113%2–011%
The match ended 0–0; before kick-off we gave this score 10%.Expectation and actual
ExpectedActual
Goals2.30Close
Corners9.212Hit
Scenario that happened“Draw, 2 goals or fewer” (before the match 23%, the 3rd likeliest scenario). The likeliest scenario, “Bulgaria win, 3+ goals” (28%), did not happen.
How did the match go?
The chances we gave before the match; the one with the green frame happened.
Bulgaria win 54%Draw 27%Estonia win 19%3+ goals3 or more goals · 40%2 goals or fewer2 goals or fewer · 60%
The chances we gave before the match; the green ones happened.
Who wins?
Bulgaria win54%Match result: Bulgaria · fair 1.86did not happen
Draw27%fair 3.65
Estonia win19%fair 5.27
Who avoids defeat?
Bulgaria avoid defeat81%Double chance: Bulgaria or draw · fair 1.23✓ happened
Estonia avoid defeat46%Double chance: draw or Estonia · fair 2.16✓ happened
No draw73%Double chance: Bulgaria or Estonia · fair 1.38did not happen
Result and goals together
Bulgaria win, 3 goals or fewer41%Bulgaria + under 3.5 · fair 2.43did not happen
Bulgaria win, 2+ goals39%Bulgaria + over 1.5 · fair 2.55did not happen
Bulgaria win, not both teams score35%Bulgaria + both teams to score: no · fair 2.84did not happen
By how many goals?
Bulgaria avoid defeat80%Handicap (Bulgaria +1): Bulgaria · fair 1.25✓ happened
Bulgaria don’t win by 2+ goals72%Handicap (Bulgaria -2): Estonia · fair 1.39✓ happened
Estonia avoid defeat46%Handicap (Bulgaria -1): Estonia · fair 2.18✓ happened
Bulgaria win by 2+ goals30%Handicap (Bulgaria -1): Bulgaria · fair 3.32did not happen
How many goals in the match?
At most 1 goal in the match33%Total goals under 1.5 · fair 2.99✓ happened
2+ goals in the match67%Total goals over 1.5 · fair 1.50did not happen
2 goals or fewer in the match59%Total goals under 2.5 · fair 1.69✓ happened
3+ goals in the match41%Total goals over 2.5 · fair 2.45did not happen
3 goals or fewer in the match79%Total goals under 3.5 · fair 1.27✓ happened
4+ goals in the match21%fair 4.78
Do both teams score?
Both teams score43%Both teams to score: yes · fair 2.34did not happen
Not both teams score57%Both teams to score: no · fair 1.75✓ happened
How many goals do Bulgaria score?
Bulgaria fail to score22%fair 4.50
Bulgaria score78%Bulgaria goals over 0.5 · fair 1.29did not happen
Bulgaria score at most 1 goal55%Bulgaria goals under 1.5 · fair 1.81✓ happened
Bulgaria score 2+ goals45%Bulgaria goals over 1.5 · fair 2.23did not happen
Bulgaria score 2 goals or fewer80%Bulgaria goals under 2.5 · fair 1.27✓ happened
Bulgaria score 3+ goals20%fair 4.95
How many goals do Estonia score?
Estonia fail to score45%Estonia goals under 0.5 · fair 2.20✓ happened
Estonia score55%Estonia goals over 0.5 · fair 1.83did not happen
Estonia score at most 1 goal81%Estonia goals under 1.5 · fair 1.23✓ happened
Estonia score 2+ goals19%fair 5.26
Which range do the goals fall in?
2–3 goals in the match47%Total goals 2-3 · fair 2.13did not happen
0–1 goals in the match33%Total goals 0-1 · fair 3.04✓ happened
Goals and both teams scoring
2 goals or fewer, not both teams score47%Under 2.5 + both teams to score: no · fair 2.11✓ happened
3+ goals, both teams score31%Over 2.5 + both teams to score: yes · fair 3.24did not happen
Who leads at half-time?
Bulgaria lead at half-time39%Half-time result: Bulgaria · fair 2.54did not happen
Level at half-time45%Half-time result: draw · fair 2.25✓ happened
Estonia lead at half-time17%fair 6.01
How many goals in the first half?
No goals in the first half36%First half goals under 0.5 · fair 2.77✓ happened
At least one goal in the first half64%First half goals over 0.5 · fair 1.56did not happen
At most 1 goal in the first half72%First half goals under 1.5 · fair 1.39✓ happened
2+ goals in the first half28%fair 3.62
Who wins the second half?
Bulgaria win the second half43%Second half result: Bulgaria · fair 2.34did not happen
Second half drawn39%Second half result: draw · fair 2.56✓ happened
Estonia win the second half18%fair 5.48
Which half has more goals?
More goals in the second half42%Higher-scoring half: second · fair 2.37did not happen
Do Bulgaria win both halves?
Bulgaria win both halves16%fair 6.14
Bulgaria don’t win both halves84%Bulgaria win both halves: no · fair 1.19✓ happened
Half-time and full-time result
Bulgaria lead at half-time, Bulgaria win the match33%Half-time/full-time: Bulgaria / Bulgaria · fair 3.04did not happen
How many corners do Bulgaria have?
Bulgaria have 5 corners or fewer54%Bulgaria corners under 5.5 · fair 1.86did not happen
Bulgaria have 6+ corners46%Bulgaria corners over 5.5 · fair 2.17✓ happened
How many corners do Estonia have?
Estonia have 3 corners or fewer53%Estonia corners under 3.5 · fair 1.89did not happen
Estonia have 4+ corners47%Estonia corners over 3.5 · fair 2.12✓ happened