How did our suggestions turn out?
SolidHit
2+ goals in the matchTotal goals over 1.585%we said so
3 goals in the match
Most likelyMissed
Norway win at least one halfNorway win either half: yes59%we said so
Score 1–2
SurpriseMissed
Norway win, 3+ goalsNorway + over 2.532%we said so
Score 1–2
4 of 6 suggestions hit
Other strong options:Portugal score79%At least one goal in the first half77%No draw75%
Who wins? · pre-match
43%Norway25%Draw33%Portugal
Result: Portugal wonHow many goals?expected 3.4 · actual 3
012345+
2 goals or fewer 36% · 3 or more 64%Likeliest scores
1–111%2–19%2–27%
The match ended 1–2; before kick-off we gave this score 7%.Why did our pick miss?
We said “Norway win at least one half”; the match had 3 goals, and we expected 3.4.
Expectation and actual
ExpectedActual
Goals3.43Hit
Cards3.59Far off
Corners9.59Hit
Scenario that happened“Portugal win, 3+ goals” (before the match 23%, the 2nd likeliest scenario). The likeliest scenario, “Norway win, 3+ goals” (31%), did not happen.
How did the match go?
The chances we gave before the match; the one with the green frame happened.
Norway win 43%Draw 25%Portugal win 33%3+ goals3 or more goals · 64%2 goals or fewer2 goals or fewer · 36%
The chances we gave before the match; the green ones happened.
Who wins?
Norway win43%Match result: Norway · fair 2.35did not happen
Draw25%fair 4.04
Portugal win33%Match result: Portugal · fair 3.07✓ happened
Who avoids defeat?
Norway avoid defeat67%Double chance: Norway or draw · fair 1.48did not happen
Portugal avoid defeat57%Double chance: draw or Portugal · fair 1.74✓ happened
No draw75%Double chance: Norway or Portugal · fair 1.33✓ happened
Result and goals together
Norway win, 2+ goals37%Norway + over 1.5 · fair 2.68did not happen
Norway win, 3+ goals32%Norway + over 2.5 · fair 3.15did not happen
Portugal win, 2+ goals31%Portugal + over 1.5 · fair 3.20✓ happened
By how many goals?
Norway don’t win by 2+ goals77%Handicap (Norway -2): Portugal · fair 1.31✓ happened
Norway avoid defeat66%Handicap (Norway +1): Norway · fair 1.51did not happen
Portugal avoid defeat56%Handicap (Norway -1): Portugal · fair 1.77✓ happened
How many goals in the match?
At most 1 goal in the match15%fair 6.55
2+ goals in the match85%Total goals over 1.5 · fair 1.18✓ happened
2 goals or fewer in the match35%Total goals under 2.5 · fair 2.88did not happen
3+ goals in the match65%Total goals over 2.5 · fair 1.53✓ happened
3 goals or fewer in the match56%Total goals under 3.5 · fair 1.82✓ happened
4+ goals in the match44%Total goals over 3.5 · fair 2.22did not happen
4 goals or fewer in the match75%Total goals under 4.5 · fair 1.33✓ happened
5+ goals in the match25%fair 4.06
Do both teams score?
Both teams score66%Both teams to score: yes · fair 1.52✓ happened
Not both teams score34%Both teams to score: no · fair 2.92did not happen
How many goals do Norway score?
Norway fail to score17%fair 6.02
Norway score83%Norway goals over 0.5 · fair 1.20✓ happened
Norway score at most 1 goal46%Norway goals under 1.5 · fair 2.18✓ happened
Norway score 2+ goals54%Norway goals over 1.5 · fair 1.85did not happen
Norway score 2 goals or fewer72%Norway goals under 2.5 · fair 1.40✓ happened
Norway score 3+ goals28%fair 3.61
How many goals do Portugal score?
Portugal fail to score21%fair 4.74
Portugal score79%Portugal goals over 0.5 · fair 1.27✓ happened
Portugal score at most 1 goal54%Portugal goals under 1.5 · fair 1.87did not happen
Portugal score 2+ goals46%Portugal goals over 1.5 · fair 2.15✓ happened
Portugal score 2 goals or fewer79%Portugal goals under 2.5 · fair 1.28✓ happened
Portugal score 3+ goals21%fair 4.70
Which range do the goals fall in?
2–3 goals in the match42%Total goals 2-3 · fair 2.40✓ happened
4–5 goals in the match31%Total goals 4-5 · fair 3.25did not happen
Odd or even number of goals?
Odd number of goals50%Total goals odd · fair 2.00✓ happened
Even number of goals50%Total goals even · fair 2.00did not happen
Goals and both teams scoring
3+ goals, both teams score56%Over 2.5 + both teams to score: yes · fair 1.79✓ happened
Who leads at half-time?
Norway lead at half-time35%Half-time result: Norway · fair 2.90did not happen
Level at half-time37%Half-time result: draw · fair 2.70did not happen
Portugal lead at half-time31%Half-time result: Portugal · fair 3.51✓ happened
How many goals in the first half?
No goals in the first half23%fair 4.44
At least one goal in the first half77%First half goals over 0.5 · fair 1.29✓ happened
At most 1 goal in the first half56%First half goals under 1.5 · fair 1.77✓ happened
2+ goals in the first half44%First half goals over 1.5 · fair 2.30did not happen
2 goals or fewer in the first half81%First half goals under 2.5 · fair 1.23✓ happened
3+ goals in the first half19%fair 5.30
Do both teams score in the first half?
Both teams score in the first half27%fair 3.64
Not both teams score in the first half73%First half, both teams to score: no · fair 1.38✓ happened
Who wins the second half?
Norway win the second half38%Second half result: Norway · fair 2.67did not happen
Second half drawn32%Second half result: draw · fair 3.11✓ happened
Portugal win the second half30%Second half result: Portugal · fair 3.29did not happen
Which half has more goals?
More goals in the first half31%Higher-scoring half: first · fair 3.22did not happen
Same number of goals in each half22%fair 4.45
More goals in the second half46%Higher-scoring half: second · fair 2.15✓ happened
Do Norway win at least one half?
Norway win at least one half59%Norway win either half: yes · fair 1.69did not happen
Norway win neither half41%Norway win either half: no · fair 2.45✓ happened
Do Portugal win at least one half?
Portugal win at least one half50%Portugal win either half: yes · fair 1.99✓ happened
Portugal win neither half50%Portugal win either half: no · fair 2.01did not happen
How many corners do Norway have?
Norway have 4 corners or fewer52%Norway corners under 4.5 · fair 1.94did not happen
Norway have 5+ corners48%Norway corners over 4.5 · fair 2.07✓ happened
How many corners do Portugal have?
Portugal have 4 corners or fewer52%Portugal corners under 4.5 · fair 1.92✓ happened
Portugal have 5+ corners48%Portugal corners over 4.5 · fair 2.09did not happen
How many cards in the match?
2 cards or fewer in the match34%Total cards under 2.5 · fair 2.91did not happen
3+ cards in the match66%Total cards over 2.5 · fair 1.52✓ happened
3 cards or fewer in the match54%Total cards under 3.5 · fair 1.84did not happen
4+ cards in the match46%Total cards over 3.5 · fair 2.19✓ happened
4 cards or fewer in the match71%Total cards under 4.5 · fair 1.41did not happen
5+ cards in the match29%fair 3.44
How many shots on target in the match?
8 shots on target or fewer in the match43%fair 2.33
9+ shots on target in the match57%Total shots on target over 8.5 · fair 1.75✓ happened
9 shots on target or fewer in the match54%fair 1.86
10+ shots on target in the match46%Total shots on target over 9.5 · fair 2.16✓ happened
10 shots on target or fewer in the match64%fair 1.57
11+ shots on target in the match36%Total shots on target over 10.5 · fair 2.76did not happen
How many shots on target do Norway have?
Norway have 4 shots on target or fewer50%fair 2.00
Norway have 5+ shots on target50%Norway shots on target over 4.5 · fair 2.00✓ happened
Norway have 5 shots on target or fewer65%fair 1.55
Norway have 6+ shots on target35%Norway shots on target over 5.5 · fair 2.82✓ happened
How many shots on target do Portugal have?
Portugal have 3 shots on target or fewer36%fair 2.79
Portugal have 4+ shots on target64%Portugal shots on target over 3.5 · fair 1.56✓ happened
Portugal have 4 shots on target or fewer51%fair 1.95
Portugal have 5+ shots on target49%Portugal shots on target over 4.5 · fair 2.05did not happen
Portugal have 5 shots on target or fewer66%fair 1.52
Portugal have 6+ shots on target34%Portugal shots on target over 5.5 · fair 2.92did not happen
How many shots in the match?
23 shots or fewer in the match39%fair 2.55
24+ shots in the match61%Total shots over 23.5 · fair 1.64✓ happened
25 shots or fewer in the match51%fair 1.96
26+ shots in the match49%Total shots over 25.5 · fair 2.04✓ happened
27 shots or fewer in the match62%fair 1.61
28+ shots in the match38%Total shots over 27.5 · fair 2.64✓ happened
How many shots do Norway have?
Norway have 12 shots or fewer51%fair 1.96
Norway have 13+ shots49%Norway shots over 12.5 · fair 2.04✓ happened
Norway have 14 shots or fewer65%fair 1.55
Norway have 15+ shots35%Norway shots over 14.5 · fair 2.82✓ happened
How many shots do Portugal have?
Portugal have 12 shots or fewer51%fair 1.95
Portugal have 13+ shots49%Portugal shots over 12.5 · fair 2.05did not happen
Portugal have 14 shots or fewer65%fair 1.54
Portugal have 15+ shots35%Portugal shots over 14.5 · fair 2.87did not happen